Costco (COST) Earnings Tonight: Sparks AI Signals Its Next Move

Costco (COST) is set to report its fiscal Q3 earnings after the bell today, and expectations are riding high. Analysts see the warehouse giant delivering earnings per share of $4.24 on revenue of $63.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14.3% and 7.8%, respectively. Despite headwinds from weak consumer sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty, Costco’s value-driven model and fiercely loyal member base continue to provide a sturdy foundation.

April’s sales numbers already offered a sneak peek into Costco’s momentum. Total net sales for the month reached $21.2 billion, up 7% from the previous year. Membership renewals remained rock solid at around 90%, and traffic in the U.S. rose 5%. Adjusting for the Easter calendar shift, core comparable sales jumped as much as 8.5%. Even non-food categories showed mid- to high-single-digit comp growth, signaling that discretionary demand is holding up better than expected.

‘Sparks’ Weighs in on Costco

According to Sparks, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, Costco’s fundamentals remain robust, though valuation looms as a concern. The stock currently trades at nearly 59x earnings, a rich multiple even for a high-quality retail name. Still, Sparks assigns Costco an “Outperform” rating with a stock score of 78, citing resilient earnings, growing e-commerce momentum, and a sharp uptick in membership fee income. April’s e-commerce sales rose 17.5%, and Q2 numbers showed a 22.2% gain when adjusted for FX. In-store growth is also humming, with U.S. comps up 8.3% last quarter and international operations delivering record results on a constant currency basis.

Sparks highlights key risks around foreign exchange, tariff uncertainty, and rising supply chain costs, which could dent margins and earnings in the near term. Yet Costco’s expansion strategy, including 28 new warehouses and extended gas station hours, points to longer-term confidence. Executive memberships are now 47.1% of the base but drive nearly three-quarters of sales—an indication of how deeply embedded Costco is in its customers’ spending habits.

Options traders are bracing for a 4.05% move in either direction after earnings, signaling elevated expectations but no clear directional bias. Sparks’ cautious optimism reflects this setup well. While COST may look expensive, it’s a company that continues to deliver. A beat tonight could reignite momentum, but any misstep might spark a reset. Either way, the spotlight is firmly on Issaquah.

Is COST Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

According to the Street’s analysts, Costco is a Strong Buy. The average COST stock price target is $1,077, implying a 6.30% upside.

See more COST analyst ratings