The price for a ton of copper surpassed $12,000 for the first time on Tuesday, driven by a weak U.S. dollar, tariffs from the Trump administration, and a supply shortage spurred by mining disruptions. The base metal is up by nearly 40% year-to-date and has risen steadily since August.
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“After essentially flat mine supply growth expected this year, our 2026 mine supply growth estimates have fallen to only around +1.4%, or about 500 kmt lower than our estimates at the beginning of the year,” said JPMorgan Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy Gregory Shearer.
Will Copper Trade Higher in 2026?
JPMorgan expects copper to reach $12,500 per ton during the second quarter of 2026 and average a price of $12,075 during the year. Goldman Sachs has a more bearish stance and expects supply to recover, leading the metal to trade in a range between $10,000 and $11,000 next year.
Meanwhile, Citi believes that copper hoarding in the U.S. will continue in the new year and has a base case price target of $13,000 and a bull case target of $15,000. UBS added that it sees a “structural bull case unfolding” for the metal with a year-end price target of $13,000.
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