Walt Disney Stock Forecast: Trending Strongly Among Analysts

Walt Disney (DIS) stock has fallen 0.7% over the past year, after slipping 2.5% in the last month but edging up 0.9% in the past week. Despite the mixed recent performance, Wall Street’s analysts are firmly bullish, with a Strong Buy consensus and a 12‑month average price target of $137, implying notable upside from the last closing price of $111.31. Analysts see the coming year as a potential turning point, with improving fundamentals expected to matter more than short-term share price swings.

One of the key voices backing Disney is David Karnovsky of J.P. Morgan, who reiterated his Buy (Overweight) rating on DIS on January 27, 2026, alongside a price target of $138. This target sits just above the Street’s $137 consensus and signals confidence that the stock can move higher from current levels. Karnovsky’s report highlights a modest improvement to his near-term forecasts, including a 2% lift to segment operating income to $4.64 billion in Disney’s fiscal first quarter and a 3% bump to adjusted EPS to $1.54, roughly in line with broader expectations.

Karnovsky argues that strength across several parts of the business underpins his positive stance. He points to Zootopia 2 as a driver for the Content Sales & Licensing segment, a more balanced timing of one-off impacts at the Experiences division (which includes theme parks and cruises), and a faster-than-expected resolution of the YouTube TV dispute in Sports. While he does not expect Disney to change its full-year double-digit EPS growth guidance, he sees a clear back-half weighted earnings story, with his team modeling adjusted EPS down 3% year-on-year in the first half, then up 27% in the second half and a further 11% growth in fiscal 2026. At around 16 times forward earnings, he believes the stock trades at an attractive valuation: a discount to the broader market and only a narrow premium to other media names.

Another focal point for investors is Disney’s Parks and Experiences business, which Karnovsky expects to gradually strengthen. He forecasts domestic parks attendance trends to improve to a 1% year-on-year decline in the current quarter from a 2% drop previously, as hurricane impacts fade, followed by a return to growth in the second half of the fiscal year. For the full year, he remains confident in Disney’s high-single-digit operating income growth target for Experiences, supported by two new cruise ships, higher per-capita spending, and better international trends. Direct-to-consumer streaming is also a major theme: while the company will give less granular data this quarter, Disney plans to disclose Entertainment DTC profitability, and Karnovsky estimates DTC revenue growth of 11.5% versus 9.6% (excluding Hotstar) in the prior quarter, with further upside coming from product improvements and a strong theatrical slate in calendar 2026.

Leadership succession adds another potential catalyst. Disney’s board has said it plans to announce the next CEO in early 2026, likely before the March 18 Annual Shareholder Meeting, with media reports frequently citing Disney Experiences chief Josh D’Amaro and Disney Entertainment co-chair Dana Walden as leading candidates. Karnovsky does not expect management to delve into succession on the upcoming earnings call, but he believes clarity on this issue could lift a lingering overhang on the shares and help unlock multiple expansion if investors gain confidence in a smooth strategic handover. Backed by his fundamental view and valuation work—anchored by a discounted cash-flow model using an 8.7% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth—Karnovsky, a 4‑figure TipRanks-tracked analyst ranked 621 out of 11,984 with a 67.56% success rate and 14.6% average return per rating, continues to see Disney as his preferred pick in the media sector. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.