VNV Global Earnings Call: Strong Portfolio, Deep Discount

Vnv Global Ab ((SE:VNV)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

VNV Global Earnings Call Balances Strong Portfolio Momentum With Valuation Headwinds

Management at VNV Global AB struck a cautiously optimistic tone in its latest earnings call, underscoring robust operational progress and accelerating growth across its core portfolio — particularly Voi, BlaBlaCar, Numan, Breadfast and HousingAnywhere — alongside improving profitability in most holdings. At the same time, they acknowledged significant near‑term pressure on reported net asset value (NAV), driven by weaker peer multiples, currency effects and a persistent, deep discount of VNV’s own share price to NAV. While valuation marks and FX swings weighed on headline numbers, management emphasized that underlying business fundamentals are strengthening and is responding to the market discount with targeted share buybacks.

NAV, Portfolio Scale and Balance Sheet Position

VNV ended 2025 with NAV of $547 million, or roughly $4.25 per share, and a total investment portfolio of about $589 million, including $537 million in investments and around $55 million in cash. Borrowings were reduced to $46.6 million after a partial bond redemption, effectively halving the outstanding bond and improving the company’s net cash profile. This combination of sizeable portfolio value and a leaner balance sheet gives VNV both resilience and flexibility, particularly for continued buybacks and selective support of its private holdings.

Core Holdings: Strong Growth and Rising Profitability

The call highlighted that VNV’s six largest holdings generated around SEK 1 billion in revenues during 2025, with VNV’s pro rata share near SEK 150 million. These top positions posted about 40% revenue growth over the year, and management expects growth of roughly 30% in 2026. Importantly, around 76–80% of the portfolio is now EBITDA positive, signaling a clear shift from pure growth-at-all-costs to more disciplined, profit-oriented expansion. While there was a slight dip in pro rata margins, the company framed this as a conscious decision to back growth in a few high-potential assets rather than a structural profit problem.

Voi: Operational Momentum in Regulated Markets

Voi, VNV’s largest single holding at more than 22% of the portfolio and now valued at $127 million, was a central focus. Voi delivered roughly 30% net revenue growth in 2025 and boosted monthly active riders by more than 33%, retaining around 1 million monthly users across some 110 cities in 12 countries. The business is heavily concentrated in regulated environments, with about 80% of revenues and roughly 30% market share in those markets, which management sees as a competitive moat. On the back of this progress, VNV raised its Voi valuation by more than 25% over 2025, even though it applied a Q4 markdown due to more conservative near-term EBITDA assumptions.

BlaBlaCar: Monetization Upside Despite Valuation Cut

BlaBlaCar remains one of VNV’s cornerstone assets, with the stake valued at $164 million. The quarter did see an 11% valuation reduction, driven mainly by weaker peer multiples rather than operational setbacks. Management pointed to significant long-term monetization potential in emerging markets such as Brazil, India and Mexico, where the platform continues to scale, and emphasized improving product-led growth in Europe. The tone suggested that VNV sees the current markdown as more a function of market comparables than a change in the company’s structural prospects.

Buybacks and Capital Returns as a Core Capital Allocation Tool

VNV is leaning into shareholder returns through opportunistic buybacks, underscoring confidence in its underlying NAV. The company has repurchased about 2.4 million common shares, equivalent to roughly 1.8% of outstanding shares. Management noted that buybacks are particularly attractive while the stock trades at a steep discount to NAV and highlighted roughly $170 million of exits executed around NAV over the past two years as evidence that the reported values are realistic. With a stronger net cash position, VNV sees room to maintain this capital return strategy without compromising portfolio support.

Portfolio Wins, Exits and Select Follow-On Investments

The call showcased several validation points for VNV’s private valuations. The sale of Tise to eBay was completed above VNV’s carrying value, while new funding rounds in OURA and Yuv were priced above VNV’s marks, reinforcing confidence in the broader portfolio. Management reiterated its willingness to support high-conviction holdings through follow-on investments, including an intended commitment of around EUR 1 million to HousingAnywhere’s upcoming round. These events help offset the negative sentiment created by markdowns elsewhere and support the view that the portfolio’s intrinsic value remains robust.

Breadfast, HousingAnywhere and Numan: Emerging Growth Leaders

Several mid-sized holdings are emerging as key growth engines. Breadfast, valued at about $30 million, reported a run-rate gross merchandise value near $290 million and accelerating growth, though at the cost of lower near-term margins as it invests aggressively. HousingAnywhere, valued around $37 million, has delivered roughly 20% compound annual growth and has been adjusted EBITDA positive since 2024, with VNV planning to participate in its next financing. Numan, also valued at $37 million based on a 2025 funding round, posted triple-digit revenue growth in 2025 while achieving positive EBITDA, underscoring the portfolio’s tilt toward profitable digital businesses.

Debt Reduction and Enhanced Liquidity

VNV has made visible progress in de-risking its balance sheet and bolstering liquidity. The partial redemption of its bond meaningfully reduced leverage, while key cash inflows from the closing of exits such as Gett and Tise provided additional financial flexibility. With around $55 million in gross cash, management highlighted ample capacity to continue share repurchases and support select portfolio rounds without resorting to dilutive capital raises. This improved funding position is particularly important in a market where access to growth capital remains uneven for private companies.

NAV Declines and Mark-to-Market Pressure

Despite strong operating trends, VNV reported notable NAV pressure in Q4. NAV declined 5.9% in USD during the quarter and about 8% in SEK, leaving the 12‑month NAV down roughly 4.2% in USD and close to 20% in SEK. Management attributed these moves largely to mark-to-market adjustments on key holdings tied to weaker peer multiples, rather than deteriorating fundamentals. The discrepancy between underlying growth and reported NAV underscores the sensitivity of VNV’s valuations to public market comparables.

Valuation Markdowns in Voi and BlaBlaCar

Two of VNV’s flagship holdings saw quarter-on-quarter valuation cuts. BlaBlaCar’s valuation fell around 11% (about $20 million) in the quarter, and Voi’s stake was marked down approximately 7% (around $10 million). Management stressed that these were driven mainly by movements in peer multiples and conservative near-term EBITDA assumptions, rather than any structural deterioration. Overall fair-value changes across the portfolio were described as accounting reflections of broader market volatility rather than a revision of long-term expectations.

Persistent Discount to NAV

A central frustration expressed on the call was the persistent gap between VNV’s share price and its reported NAV. Management cited an implied discount of roughly 49% to NAV, even as the company buys back stock and improves its cash and net cash position. While the reported figure of about 19.9% discount at a specific date underscores some variability, the overall message is that the market continues to heavily discount VNV’s private holdings. Management sees this as a mispricing and is using buybacks to capitalize on it, but acknowledged that closing the gap will likely require both time and continued proof of portfolio exits near or above carrying value.

Short-Term Margin Pressure From Growth Investments

VNV acknowledged some near-term pressure on profitability from increased growth investments in certain holdings. Voi, for example, reduced its near-term LTM EBITDA forecast for 2026 to reflect higher spending on expansion into mega-cities like London and Paris and the build-out of a refurbishment hub in Poland. Similarly, Breadfast is prioritizing scale over near-term margins. The net effect is a slight dip in VNV’s pro rata adjusted EBITDA margin for its top holdings to around 2.2%, down from roughly 2.5–3% previously. Management framed these trends as tactical choices aimed at maximizing long-term value rather than an erosion of the portfolio’s earnings power.

Currency and Reporting Volatility

Currency movements added another layer of noise to the reported figures. Because VNV reports in USD but holds limited USD-denominated assets, NAV volatility in the reporting currency is amplified by FX moves. The weakness of the Swedish krona contributed to the roughly 20% SEK decline in NAV over 12 months, even as the USD decline was much milder. Management is reviewing whether the chosen reporting currency remains optimal but has not made any changes, signaling that investors should continue to expect some translation-driven swings in reported numbers.

Forward-Looking Guidance and Outlook

Management’s outlook centers on continued strong growth and improving profitability across the core portfolio, even as mark-to-market pressures may persist. VNV expects its six largest holdings, which together account for around 80% of NAV (roughly SEK 30 per share), to grow revenues by about 30% in 2026 after a year of roughly 40% growth. Earnings from these assets are projected to turn more decisively positive and accelerate, with Voi expected to deliver positive adjusted EBITDA and EBIT in 2026 while still investing in city expansion and refurbishment capacity. With NAV at $547 million, total portfolio value at $589 million, debt down to $46.6 million, and approximately $55 million in cash, VNV intends to maintain opportunistic share buybacks as long as its stock trades at a pronounced discount to NAV, and to selectively back high-conviction portfolio companies in upcoming rounds.

In sum, VNV Global’s latest earnings call painted a picture of a portfolio that is growing fast and increasingly profitable, but whose value is not fully reflected in reported NAV or the share price. Operational momentum in assets like Voi, BlaBlaCar, Numan, Breadfast and HousingAnywhere, together with successful exits and stronger balance sheet metrics, supports management’s confidence. Yet peer multiple compression, FX volatility and a stubbornly wide discount to NAV continue to weigh on headline results. For investors, the story is one of solid underlying fundamentals paired with market skepticism — a combination that could offer upside if the company continues to execute and crystallize value through exits and sustained profitability across its core holdings.