UnitedHealth Stock Forecast: Analysts See Turnaround Upside

UnitedHealth Group ‘(UNH)’ stock has fallen 18.7% over the past week, dropped 14.1% in the last month, and is down 46.6% over the past year, reflecting heavy pressure on the health insurance and managed care giant. Yet despite this steep decline, Wall Street’s analysts are firmly bullish, with a StrongBuy consensus and an average 12-month price target of $396.46 versus a last closing price of $282.70. That target implies meaningful upside potential if the company can execute on its turnaround plan and navigate regulatory uncertainty around Medicare Advantage.

Analyst Kevin Fischbeck of BofA takes a more cautious stance, reiterating a Neutral (Hold) view on UNH with a price objective of $360.00, close to where the stock traded around $351.64 at the time of his note. Fischbeck argues that the company’s 4Q25/4Q26 performance shows the turnaround is on track: fourth-quarter EPS and the 2026 EPS guide of $17.75 were both in line with consensus, and UNH expects its Medical Loss Ratio to decline by 30 basis points with margin improvement across all segments in 2026. He views the $17.75 EPS guide as a floor and anticipates modest beats and raises through the year as UNH executes. However, he highlights that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ 2027 Advance Rate Notice came in well below market expectations, including “V29” risk-adjustment changes, which he sees as a key overhang for how quickly Medicare Advantage and value-based care can rebound. This N-star analyst ranks 3,110 out of 11,984 on TipRanks, with a 59.94% success rate and a 3.20% average return per rating.

Fischbeck also points to a deliberate mix shift in UnitedHealthcare membership as UNH cuts unprofitable business to protect margins. Medicare Advantage membership is expected to decline by 1.3–1.4 million members (about 14%), a bigger drop than the previously expected 1 million, which he notes is a negative read-through for peers like Humana. Commercial risk membership is also projected to fall by 1.3–1.4 million (around 18%), partially offset by 550,000–750,000 new commercial fee-based members, while Medicaid membership is expected to decline by roughly 565,000–715,000 (about 10%). Despite these sharp membership declines, UNH expects around 50 basis points of 2026 EBIT margin improvement from cutting less-profitable segments. Within Optum, Fischbeck sees modest but important progress: Optum Health’s adjusted margin is expected to edge from about 1.4% to 1.7% in 2026, still far below its long-term 6–8% EBIT margin goal, while Optum Insight margins are expected to improve by 90 basis points to 22.6% and Optum Rx margins to tick up to 4.2%.

Analyst Whit Mayo of Leerink Partners is more upbeat, reiterating an Outperform (Buy) rating on UNH while trimming his price target from $410.00 to $345.00. In his view, the 4Q25 results were mixed, with elevated cost trends and a shortfall at Optum Health, but overall guidance that is reasonable and based on believable assumptions. He notes that the release of the weak Advance Notice on Medicare Advantage rates triggered a sharp, broad-based sell-off across the managed care sector. Historically, however, final rate updates have tended to come in roughly 1% better than the preliminary Advance Notice, and last year the improvement was closer to 3%. Mayo believes the current sell-off is likely too harsh compared to where final rates could land in April. He expects UnitedHealthcare to see a “steady march” toward margin recovery in 2026, helped by benefit cuts in Medicare Advantage designed to preserve profitability, with around 50 basis points of margin expansion next year. This N-star analyst ranks 3,310 out of 11,984 on TipRanks, with a 50.34% success rate and a 3.10% average return per rating.

Mayo remains cautious on Optum Health, which he says still requires significant work and faces a longer road to recovery. The segment’s 4Q performance was underwhelming, with UNH linking the weakness to restructuring actions under new leadership. He highlights management’s efforts to reposition Optum Health for better results from 2026 onward by narrowing the affiliated network, strengthening the value-based care network, and streamlining risk membership by around 15%, including dropping certain PPO contracts, repositioning specific markets, and de-delegating certain payer arrangements where necessary. Mayo expects modest margin expansion in Optum Health of about 30 basis points in 2026 with more meaningful improvement in 2027 and beyond. Overall, for investors willing to look past near-term volatility in Medicare Advantage rates and execution risk at Optum, the broad analyst consensus, including these divergent but generally constructive views, suggests that UNH’s recent share price slide may present a potential long-term opportunity. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.