Super Micro Computer Stock Forecast: Trending Mixed Among Analysts

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock has risen 12.1% over the past week, gained 10.5% in the last month, and is up 7.2% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are neutral, with a 12‑month consensus “Hold” rating and an average price target of $39.44, implying moderate upside from the last closing price of $33.76. The market is clearly reacting to strong AI-driven demand and rapid revenue growth, but analysts are divided on whether this momentum will translate into sustainable earnings and margin improvement.

On the cautious side, Ruplu Bhattacharya of Bank of America reiterated a Sell (Underperform) rating on SMCI on February 4, 2026, with a price target of $34.00, suggesting limited upside from current levels. Bhattacharya notes that demand for AI servers and racks remains robust, with Super Micro’s recent quarterly revenues coming in at $12.7 billion, about $2 billion above the midpoint of guidance. However, gross margins were slightly weaker than expected at 6.4%, and guidance for the next quarter points to only modest improvement to 6.7%, still below prior estimates. In his view, intense competition, lower-margin large deals, expedited shipping, higher component costs, and added engineering and services investments will keep margins under pressure, making revenue growth “low-calorie” as earnings lag.

Despite recognizing Super Micro’s manufacturing scale and improving product mix as competitive advantages, Bhattacharya remains skeptical about the cash flow profile. The analyst highlights that free cash flow in the latest quarter was negative $45 million, as the company must maintain high working capital to support its rapid revenue expansion. While management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $40 billion and Bhattacharya even models $41 billion with gradual margin improvement, he still projects only modest gross margin gains to 7.1% in FY26 and 7.9% in FY27. His $34 price objective is based on a 15x multiple of calendar 2026 EPS, and he continues to see risk that margin and cash flow pressures could cap the stock’s upside. This 3-star analyst ranks 2,333 out of 11,984 on TipRanks, with a 60.58% success rate and a 7.8% average return per rating.

Balancing that bearish stance, Samik Chatterjee of J.P. Morgan reiterated a Hold (Neutral) rating on SMCI, also on February 4, 2026, with a higher price target of $40.00. Chatterjee highlights an exceptionally strong quarter, with revenues of $12.7 billion up 123% year over year and well ahead of both J.P. Morgan and consensus estimates, driven largely by one key customer that accounted for 63% of sales. AI platforms represented over 90% of revenues, reinforcing Super Micro’s strong positioning in AI servers and next-generation infrastructure. EPS of $0.69 beat expectations on both revenue outperformance and disciplined operating expenses, and management raised FY26 revenue guidance to $40 billion, citing increasing diversification as more large-scale customers ramp up, along with future contributions from new platforms such as Vera Rubin, AMD Helios, and Datacenter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS).

Still, Chatterjee urges caution on margins, which he sees progressing more slowly than hoped. Gross margins of 6.4% slightly missed forecasts, and while operating margins were stronger at about 4.5%, the outlook suggests only gradual improvement. The bright spot is DCBBS, a 20%+ margin business that contributed roughly 4% of profits in the first half of FY26 and is expected to reach a double-digit share of profits by the end of 2026, providing a structural tailwind for margins over time. Net-net, Chatterjee is raising revenue and earnings estimates for FY26 and beyond but keeping a Neutral rating until there is clearer proof of sustained margin expansion to match the robust AI-driven revenue story. This 5-star analyst ranks 92 out of 11,984 on TipRanks, with a 65.86% success rate and a 23.2% average return per rating.

For investors, SMCI now sits at the intersection of powerful AI growth trends and real concerns about profitability and cash generation. One highly ranked analyst sees the stock as fairly valued given margin and execution risks, while another still recommends selling despite strong top-line growth, citing ongoing margin and cash flow pressures. With the consensus at Hold and price targets clustered close to current levels, the stock may reward investors who believe Super Micro can convert its AI leadership and higher-margin DCBBS products into sustained margin gains—but it also carries risk if competition and cost pressures persist. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.