Shell Flags Weaker Chemicals & Products Earnings and Working-Capital Outflows in Q4 2025 Update

The latest announcement is out from Shell (UK) ( (GB:SHEL) ).

Shell has issued an updated trading statement for the fourth quarter of 2025, flagging broadly stable production in Integrated Gas and Upstream, seasonally lower Marketing volumes, and refining margins that are slightly higher but offset by weaker chemicals margins. The company expects Chemicals & Products to deliver adjusted earnings below break-even, with the Chemicals sub-segment posting a significant loss due to non‑cash deferred tax adjustments in a joint venture, and Trading & Optimisation results in that segment to be significantly lower than in the previous quarter. Group cash flow from operations will be weighed down by around $1.5 billion of outflows tied to timing of payments for German emissions certificates and typical German mineral oil tax payments, while group tax charges and segment earnings will be influenced by annual non‑cash reassessments of deferred tax assets, including about $0.3 billion of deferred tax effects in Marketing and Chemicals joint ventures. The update also highlights structural changes including the incorporation of the Adura UK upstream joint venture, which will alter future cash flow timing through dividend distributions, and a completed Canadian oil sands swap that reduces oil sands production and lowers Chemicals & Products adjusted earnings in tandem with a reduction in non‑controlling interests at group level.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:SHEL) stock is a Buy with a £34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shell (UK) stock, see the GB:SHEL Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on GB:SHEL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:SHEL is a Outperform.

Shell’s overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong operational margins and a solid balance sheet. The company’s attractive valuation and positive earnings call sentiment contribute positively. However, technical analysis indicates potential short-term weakness, and challenges in revenue and cash flow growth present risks.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:SHEL stock, click here.

More about Shell (UK)

Shell is a global integrated energy company headquartered in the UK, operating across the oil and gas value chain with major businesses in integrated gas, upstream exploration and production, refining and petrochemicals, marketing of fuels and lubricants, and a growing renewables and energy solutions segment. It serves industrial, commercial and retail customers worldwide, with a strategic focus on liquefied natural gas, large-scale refining and chemicals, and an expanding low‑carbon energy portfolio.

Average Trading Volume: 9,858,659

Technical Sentiment Signal: Strong Buy

Current Market Cap: £156.3B

For detailed information about SHEL stock, go to TipRanks’ Stock Analysis page.