Palantir Stock Trending as Analysts Weigh 2026 Upside

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock has delivered a striking 176.10% gain over the past 12 months, even though its short-term performance has cooled, slipping 0.17% over the last week and 2.10% over the past month. Despite this sharp rally over the year, Wall Street’s overall stance is cautious, with an analyst consensus rating of “Hold” and a 12‑month average price target of $190.06 versus a recent closing price of $179.41. That consensus points to modest upside from current levels, suggesting that many analysts see the stock as fairly valued after its strong run.

Under the surface of that “Hold” consensus, however, one notable voice has turned more optimistic. Tyler Radke of Citi Research has upgraded Palantir from Neutral/High Risk to Buy/High Risk and set a new price target of $235.00, implying meaningful upside from where the shares currently trade. Radke ranks 2,033 out of 11,984 analysts, with a success rate of about 47.79% and an average return of 6.40% per rating. His upgrade highlights growing confidence that Palantir is entering a powerful new growth phase in both its commercial and government businesses.

Radke argues that Palantir is at the “right place at the right time” as enterprise demand for AI and so‑called agentic AI systems accelerates into 2026. He notes that the company has already delivered “spectacular returns” as rapid growth and margin expansion have challenged traditional valuation frameworks. Even though Citi’s revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 have risen by more than 10% since mid‑year, the stock has traded roughly flat in that period, which Radke sees as an opportunity. He points in particular to Palantir’s strength in data ontology and its model of “forward deployed engineering” as key advantages as companies ramp up AI budgets and deployments.

On the commercial side, Radke highlights Palantir’s reported adjusted Remaining Deal Value (RDV) growth of more than 250% year over year in the third quarter as a sign of strong expansion potential with corporate customers. He believes AI is helping accelerate how quickly these customers can migrate and deploy Palantir’s platforms, opening the door to an upside scenario where total company revenue could grow 70–80% in 2026. In Citi’s base case, Radke is already modeling FY26 revenue growth of 51% year over year, roughly 8 percentage points above current consensus, underscoring how far his expectations are ahead of the broader market.

The government segment is another pillar of his bullish thesis. Radke forecasts 51% year‑over‑year growth in government revenue for FY26, again around 800 basis points above consensus, and sees an upside case of more than 70% growth. He expects a “defense supercycle” driven by rising defense budgets, modernization efforts among U.S. allies, and potential tailwinds after a 2025 U.S. government shutdown passes. Upcoming announcements around major defense initiatives such as the “Golden Dome” could act as catalysts, even if their biggest financial impact may show up more in 2027. On valuation, his $235 target assumes Palantir trading at roughly 68 times FY27 enterprise value‑to‑sales on base estimates, or 52 times on the upside scenario—levels he argues are in line with high‑growth peers like Snowflake and MongoDB when adjusted for growth. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.