Netflix Stock Forecast: Trending Upgrade Amid Ad Boom

Netflix stock forecast over the next 12 months points to a cautiously optimistic outlook, even after a weak recent trading stretch. (NFLX) stock has fallen 1.8% over the past week, dropped 9.0% over the past month, and declined 11.8% over the past year. Despite this negative price performance, Wall Street’s analysts are moderately bullish, forecasting a move toward a 12‑month price target of $115.91 from the last end-of-day price of $85.70, implying meaningful upside from current levels.

Analyst sentiment on Netflix is captured by a Moderate Buy consensus, reflecting a blend of optimism and awareness of key risks. One of the latest voices weighing in is Helena Wang of Phillip Securities Research (Singapore), who upgraded Netflix to Buy on January 26, 2026, setting a price target of $100. While this target is below the overall Street average, it still signals upside from today’s price and fits within the broader constructive view on the stock. Wang’s upgrade comes alongside a valuation roll-forward to FY26 estimates, with no change to longer-term growth or discount rate assumptions.

Wang’s report highlights Netflix’s strong recent financial performance as a key reason for turning more positive. For the fourth quarter of 2025, both revenue and profit after tax (PATMI) were in line with expectations and even exceeded the company’s own guidance for the quarter and full year. Revenue grew 17% year over year, powered by an 8% increase in memberships, higher prices, a better mix of subscription plans, and a powerful ramp-up in advertising revenue, which rose 2.5 times from the prior year. Management is projecting another 15% year-over-year revenue increase for the first quarter of 2026, suggesting that momentum is set to continue.

Content and advertising are at the center of the bull case. Wang notes that hit series like Stranger Things and Emily in Paris, along with feature films such as Frankenstein and A House of Dynamite, helped drive both top and bottom line in 4Q25. Looking ahead, upcoming titles including Stranger Things, Avatar, and The Night Agent are expected to keep subscribers engaged, while live events such as the NFL Christmas Gameday special and the World Baseball Classic in Japan add further appeal. At the same time, Netflix’s ad-supported tier is scaling quickly: ad revenue doubled faster than expected in FY25 and is guided to double again in FY26, with ad-supported viewing hours comparable to non-ad plans and CPMs at the upper end of the premium connected TV market. Although ads currently contribute only about 3% of FY25 revenue, the analyst sees this as a key long-term growth engine.

Still, the story is not without risks. Wang flags the proposed Warner Bros. deal as a major source of uncertainty, noting that Netflix plans to finance an all-cash offer with an additional $8.2 billion in debt. This raises questions around integration risk, regulatory scrutiny, and how quickly content synergies will materialize. While the added leverage complicates the company’s balance sheet, Wang believes it remains manageable given Netflix’s roughly $10 billion in free cash flow generated in FY25. Overall, this N-star analyst, who ranks 4007 out of 11984 on TipRanks with a 54.55% success rate and an 11.40% average return per rating, sees Netflix as structurally and financially well-positioned for long-term growth, even if volatility around the Warner Bros. deal lingers. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.