Microsoft Stock Forecast: Trending Bullish On AI Cloud

Microsoft (MSFT) stock has risen 6.8% over the past week, though it is down 1.2% over the past month and up 9.7% over the last twelve months. Wall Street’s analysts are strongly bullish, with a “StrongBuy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $617.31 versus a last closing price of $481.63. That implies meaningful upside over the coming year, even as investors digest mixed short‑term signals around the pace of growth in the company’s Azure cloud business.

Analyst Hannah Rudoff of Piper Sandler reiterated a Buy (Overweight) rating on Microsoft on January 29, 2026, while trimming her price target to $600.00. She argues that investors are “missing the forest for the trees,” focusing too narrowly on Azure’s growth deceleration to 38% year over year in constant currency, versus 39% in the prior quarter and modestly above guidance. In her view, Azure’s growth is being constrained by capacity allocation decisions rather than weak demand, with management deliberately spreading scarce infrastructure between Azure, first‑party apps like Microsoft 365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot, and internal R&D. Rudoff highlights that total capex is shifting heavily toward short‑lived GPU and CPU assets to relieve immediate capacity constraints, while commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) have surged to $625 billion, up 110% year over year including OpenAI commitments. This 1‑star analyst ranks #10000 out of 11,984, with a 40.0% success rate and an average return of -4.3% per rating.

From Mizuho Securities, analyst Gregg Moskowitz also reiterated a Buy (Outperform) on January 29, 2026, keeping his price target at $620.00. He describes Microsoft’s latest quarter as showing “good overall execution,” with total revenue of $81.3 billion, up 17% year over year on a reported basis and 15% in constant currency, coming in above both his and the Street’s forecasts. Azure’s 38% constant‑currency growth slightly exceeded management’s 37% guidance but came in below buy‑side hopes, as disciplined capacity allocation weighed on growth. Moskowitz points to an extraordinary 228% year‑over‑year increase in commercial bookings, driven largely by massive Azure commitments from OpenAI and Anthropic, and notes that management’s target of 37–38% Azure growth in the coming quarter is still ahead of broader expectations. He remains “ever‑confident” in Microsoft’s long‑term revenue opportunities and AI monetization levers. This 4‑star analyst ranks #3235 out of 11,984, with a 52.53% success rate and an average return of 2.8% per rating.

Citi’s Tyler Radke joined the chorus of bullish voices, reiterating his Buy rating on January 29, 2026, while nudging his price target down to $635.00. Radke characterizes the quarter as “mixed”: Azure delivered one point of upside to guidance but slowed slightly, as Microsoft made “intentional capacity allocation” choices to prioritize its own first‑party services and grappled with memory price and supply issues that pressured guidance for the More Personal Computing segment. On the positive side, he underscores powerful AI momentum, with Microsoft 365 Copilot reaching 15 million paid users, up 160% year over year, and a tripling in the number of customers with more than 35,000 Copilot seats. GitHub Copilot paid subscribers climbed 75% year over year to 4.7 million, while other Copilot offerings also grew rapidly. Radke notes that commercial RPO reached $625 billion, 45% of which is tied to OpenAI, and that commercial bookings jumped about 230% year over year, supported by large commitments from OpenAI and Anthropic. This 4‑star analyst ranks #2033 out of 11,984, with a 47.79% success rate and an average return of 6.4% per rating.

For investors, the message across the Street is clear: short‑term Azure growth optics may be choppy, but underlying demand and long‑term AI positioning remain robust. All three analysts reiterate Buy‑equivalent ratings and see substantial upside from current levels, anchored by strong cloud and AI demand, a swelling backlog, and accelerating Copilot adoption. At the same time, they caution that capacity constraints, shifting capex patterns, and competitive and regulatory risks remain important to watch. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.