International Business Machines Stock Trending Among Analysts

International Business Machines (IBM) stock has climbed 2.17% over the past week, but slipped 1.78% over the last month, reflecting some short-term volatility after a strong run. Looking at a longer horizon, the stock has surged 42.82% over the past 12 months, easily outpacing the broader market. Wall Street’s analysts are moderately bullish, with a “ModerateBuy” consensus and a 12‑month average price target of $317.13 versus a last closing price of $303.16.

Among the most closely watched voices on the stock is analyst Wamsi Mohan of Bank of America. Mohan reiterated a Buy rating on IBM on January 13, 2026, while lifting his price objective to $335, implying meaningful upside from both the current share price and the broader Street target. Mohan is a highly ranked analyst, standing at #110 out of 11,984 tracked experts, with a 62.37% success rate and an impressive 25.10% average return per rating, metrics that add weight to his positive stance on the stock.

Mohan’s latest report acknowledges that IBM faces a “tougher setup” heading into 2026 after a very strong 2025, when the stock was up 38%, compared with an 18% gain in the S&P 500. He expects a weaker close to 2025 and several headwinds next year, including a softer fourth‑quarter PTI margin driven by workforce rebalancing expenses of about $400 million. That pressure is likely to keep full‑year 2025 PTI margin expansion below management’s guide of more than 100 basis points, with Mohan estimating around 70 basis points instead, though he sees lower taxes partly offsetting this at the earnings level.

Looking into 2026, Mohan expects IBM to guide for constant‑currency software revenue growth of about 10%, low‑single‑digit growth in consulting, and flat performance in infrastructure, adding up to roughly 5% overall growth for the company, or about 4% on an organic basis. A key element in the outlook is the planned acquisition of Confluent (CFLT), which he believes will close around mid‑year and add roughly 2% inorganic growth to software and a strong 10% boost to data‑related revenues. He also models free cash flow of $14 billion for 2025 and a potential guide of about $15 billion in 2026, maintaining a healthy 130% free‑cash‑flow‑to‑net‑income ratio and underlining IBM’s cash‑generation strength.

Despite caution around near‑term margins and softer software growth as IBM laps tough comparisons in areas like Red Hat, Mohan’s long‑term view remains constructive. He highlights higher‑margin software revenues, strong free cash flow growth, and added “optionality” from quantum computing as key supports for the Buy rating. With his price target set at $335, based on 23 times forecast 2027 free cash flow and reflecting the contribution from Confluent, IBM stays on the radar as a stock analysts see as trending positively, even as they brace for a more modest year after an exceptional run. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.