Intel Trending With Analysts Amid Agentic AI Shift

Intel (INTC) stock has climbed an impressive 115.71% over the past year, including a sharp 29.12% jump in the last month, even though it slipped slightly by 0.70% over the past week. Despite this strong run, the stock now trades at $46.96, modestly above Wall Street’s average 12‑month price target of $43.61. That gap helps explain why the current overall analyst consensus is “Hold” rather than a more aggressive “Buy,” suggesting that many experts see the recent rally as having already priced in a good portion of the near‑term optimism.

Wall Street’s stance is broadly cautious but not dismissive. With a consensus “Hold” and a price target just below today’s level, analysts appear to be signalling that Intel’s risk‑reward profile is more balanced after its big move. The stock’s 19% year‑to‑date rise versus the S&P 500’s 1% gain (as noted in the latest research) underlines just how quickly sentiment has shifted. For investors, the message is that while upside still exists, it may be more selective and tied to specific growth drivers rather than a simple valuation rerating.

One of the most notable recent calls comes from Frank Lee Cfa of HSBC Global Investment Research, who has upgraded Intel to “Hold” from “Reduce” with a new price target of $50.00. That target implies additional upside from current levels, pushing above both the consensus forecast and Intel’s present price. Lee is a mid‑pack but respectable voice on the Street, ranking 2,167 out of 11,984 analysts, with a success rate of about 45.95% and an average return of 21.60% per rating. His shift from a negative to a more neutral stance reflects how the narrative around Intel is changing as new AI trends emerge.

The core of Lee’s thesis is that “agentic AI” could drive a powerful rebound in demand for Intel’s server CPUs, a business that sits in the company’s Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment. As AI applications evolve from simple chatbots to autonomous agents that plan and execute tasks, he expects demand for general‑purpose compute to accelerate. Lee now forecasts server CPU shipments in 2026 to grow 15–20% year over year, far above the Street’s 4–6% expectations and the roughly 2% average growth of the past five years. Supported by both higher unit volumes and a 10% boost in average selling prices from improved product mix, he raises his 2026 DCAI revenue estimate by 18% to $19.8 billion—about 10% above consensus—and sees even greater earnings upside in a bullish scenario with stronger pricing.

Still, the foundry side of Intel’s story remains a swing factor and a key reason Lee stops short of a “Buy.” He notes that visibility on external foundry customers is limited, despite signs of rising engagement. Nvidia is expected to remain with TSMC for its AI datacenter GPUs, though there could be room for Intel on smaller gaming GPUs, and Apple is reportedly in discussions with Intel for M‑series processors. Advanced packaging offerings such as EMIB could attract more external customers around fiscal 2027, but Lee expects earnings contributions to stay limited for now. Overall, his upgraded $50.00 target price—derived from a higher price‑to‑book multiple of 1.9x on 2026 estimated book value—captures both the exciting upside from AI‑driven server demand and the lingering uncertainty around Intel’s foundry ambitions. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.