Intel Stock Trending as Analysts Reassess AI Upside

(INTC) stock has delivered a spectacular run, jumping 123.06% over the past year and 33.52% in the last month, even though it dipped slightly by 0.33% over the past week. Despite this powerful rally, Wall Street’s overall stance is cautious: the 12‑month analyst consensus is “Hold,” with an average price target of $44.52 versus a last end‑of‑day price of $48.56. In other words, analysts as a group are not yet calling for more upside from current levels and see the stock as fairly valued to slightly stretched in the near term.

Under the surface, however, views are shifting as the story around Intel’s server and PC businesses evolves. Frank Lee, CFA of HSBC, upgraded Intel to Hold from Reduce, lifting his target price to $50.00, implying modest downside from the most recent close but still above the Street’s average target. Ranked 2,167 out of 11,984 analysts on TipRanks, with a 45.95% success rate and a strong 21.6% average return per rating, Lee argues that a new wave of “agentic AI” is set to drive a powerful rebound in traditional server CPUs. He expects Intel’s FY26 server shipments to grow 15–20% year over year versus the market’s 4–6% expectation, supported by both higher unit growth and a 10% average selling price increase.

Lee believes that as AI applications evolve from simple assistants to autonomous agents that plan and execute tasks, demand for general‑purpose compute – and therefore server CPUs – will outstrip supply. He sees 2026 market demand implying 30–40% year‑over‑year server CPU growth, though DRAM constraints may cap actual shipments to 15–20%, still far above the roughly 2% average growth of the past five years. On this backdrop, he raises his 2026 DCAI (Data Center and AI) revenue forecast by 18% to $19.8 billion, about 10% above consensus, and notes that in a more bullish scenario with a 20% ASP increase, Intel’s earnings per share could see 26% to 53% upside vs. his base case and Street estimates.

Yet, Lee remains cautious on Intel’s foundry ambitions, one of the key swing factors for the long‑term equity story. He highlights ongoing execution issues and limited visibility into the external customer pipeline, even as engagement appears to be improving. Potential discussions with major players like Nvidia for certain GPUs and Apple for M‑series processors, as well as opportunities in advanced EMIB packaging from FY27, are seen as optionality rather than near‑term earnings drivers. That balance of AI‑driven upside in servers against foundry uncertainty explains why he stops at a Hold rating, even after more than doubling his target from $26.00 to $50.00.

Other analysts are somewhat more upbeat. Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners, ranked 10,406 out of 11,984 with a 25.0% success rate and an average return of -6.9% per rating, upgraded Intel to Buy from Neutral with a bullish $65.00 price target. His call rests on “strong signals” for Intel’s PC products and an improving outlook for Intel Foundry Services, suggesting he sees greater room for the turnaround to play out in both client and manufacturing. Meanwhile, Christopher Rolland of Susquehanna, one of the top‑ranked analysts at #222 out of 11,984 with a 58.63% success rate and a 21.5% average return, reiterated a Hold rating while nudging his target from $40.00 to $45.00. Rolland expects better near‑term PC builds helped by Windows end‑of‑life dynamics, a shift of wafer capacity from PCs to higher‑value server products, and a growing data‑center backlog into 2026, but he remains wary of Intel’s share losses to AMD and the industry’s move toward ARM‑based solutions.

For investors, the mixed but improving sentiment paints a nuanced picture: Intel has already rewarded shareholders with a huge 12‑month rally, and analysts as a group are not yet aligned on further upside from here. The bullish camp highlights AI‑driven growth in servers, strengthening PC demand and early signs of progress in foundry engagements, while skeptics point to execution risks and tough competition. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.