Indonesia’s Imports Rebound, But Miss Forecasts Sharply

Indonesia’s import growth turned positive in the latest reading, with imports up 0.46% year-on-year versus a 1.15% decline previously. The shift represents a 1.61 percentage-point improvement, signaling a modest pickup in external demand and domestic activity compared with the prior contraction.

However, the 0.46% increase fell well short of the 3.20% analyst estimate, pointing to a weaker-than-expected rebound in trade. This undershoot is likely to weigh on sentiment for cyclicals and trade-linked sectors such as industrials, transportation, and export-import oriented firms, as it hints at a more subdued growth impulse. The market reaction should center on near-term risk appetite, while investors reassess the strength of Indonesia’s demand recovery rather than materially altering longer-term policy expectations.