Indonesia Trade Surplus Widens But Misses Bullish Forecasts

Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to $2.66 billion from $2.40 billion, an increase of $0.26 billion or about 10.8%. The higher surplus signals stronger net exports compared with the prior period, underscoring an improvement in the country’s external balance.

However, the surplus came in below the analyst estimate of $3.10 billion, a shortfall of $0.44 billion that may temper market enthusiasm. Export-oriented sectors, particularly commodities and shipping-related firms, face modest sentiment pressure as investors reassess external-demand strength. At the same time, the still-solid surplus supports a relatively constructive view on Indonesia’s macro stability, which benefits banks and domestically focused equities, with the impact likely skewed toward short-term sentiment rather than a shift in longer-term policy expectations.