Chevron Stock Forecast: Trending StrongBuy Despite Valuation Jitters

Chevron (CVX) stock has risen 5.6% over the past week, 8.0% in the last month, and 23.9% over the past year, reflecting strong momentum in the energy sector and growing investor confidence. Wall Street’s analysts are broadly bullish, with a consensus rating of StrongBuy and a 12‑month average price target of $180.16, suggesting modest upside from the last closing price of $176.90. While the upside implied by current targets is not dramatic, the tone of research remains constructive on Chevron’s operational strength, cash flow profile, and disciplined capital spending.

One of the latest voices weighing in is Kim Fustier of HSBC, who has taken a more cautious stance after Chevron’s strong year-to-date performance. On February 2, 2026, Fustier downgraded CVX from Buy to Hold, while simultaneously raising the price target to $180.00. From the current trading level, this target implies roughly 2% upside, indicating that, in her view, much of the good news has already been priced into the stock. Despite the downgrade, Fustier continues to acknowledge Chevron’s attractive combination of cash flow growth and financial discipline.

In her report, Fustier highlighted Chevron’s solid recent results and robust operational execution. The company posted a 4Q25 adjusted EPS beat of 6%, driven mainly by upstream earnings of $3.2 billion, which came in 7% above consensus. Total production of 4.05 million barrels per day exceeded expectations by 2%, supported by strong performance in Tengizchevroil (TCO), the Permian Basin, and the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron also maintained shareholder-friendly capital returns with $3 billion of buybacks, at the high end of guidance.

Looking ahead, Fustier noted that Chevron’s 2026 guidance remains unchanged, with capital expenditures of $18–19 billion and expected upstream production growth of 7–10%, even after factoring in a temporary first-quarter dip in Kazakh and U.S. onshore volumes. The company continues to pursue structural cost reductions, having already achieved $1.5 billion last year and targeting $3–4 billion by the end of 2026, with over 60% of savings expected to come from durable efficiency gains. On Venezuela, Chevron believes it can grow production there by 50% within 18–24 months without increasing net capex, though Fustier argues that even an additional roughly 120kbd of production is unlikely to “move the needle,” as Venezuela still represents only 1–2% of group cash flow.

Fustier’s more cautious rating is driven primarily by valuation rather than fundamentals. She points out that Chevron’s share price has already risen 16% year-to-date, helped by optimism around Venezuela and higher oil prices, leaving the stock trading at what she sees as fair levels. In her view, CVX’s small 2% EV/DACF discount versus ExxonMobil for 2026 estimates is justified, while its projected 2026 distribution yield of 7.2% now lags behind European peers such as BP, Total, and Shell. Still, with a StrongBuy consensus across Wall Street and solid operational trends, Chevron remains firmly on investors’ radar as a major oil and gas player balancing growth, efficiency, and shareholder returns. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.