Chevron Stock Forecast: Trending as Analysts Turn Cautious

Chevron stock (CVX) has risen 2.9% over the past week, 6.2% over the past month, and an impressive 21.9% over the past 12 months. Wall Street’s analysts are moderately bullish, with a 12‑month consensus rating of “ModerateBuy” and an average price target of $184.56, suggesting modest room for further gains from the last end‑of‑day price of $174.03.

Wall Street’s current view reflects growing confidence in Chevron’s ability to grow while maintaining financial discipline. The average price target of $184.56 points to limited but positive upside over the coming year, implying that most analysts see the stock as fairly valued but still attractive for longer‑term investors. The recent strong share price performance, especially year‑to‑date, has been driven by optimism around higher oil prices and Chevron’s exposure to regions like Venezuela, as well as solid operational execution.

Among the notable voices, analyst Kim Fustier of HSBC Bank plc recently adjusted their stance on Chevron. Kim Fustier downgraded CVX to Hold from Buy on 2/2/2026, while raising the price target to $180.00, which implies roughly 2% upside from current levels. This N‑star analyst ranks 4016 out of 11984 on TipRanks, with a 68.57% success rate and an average return of 4.70% per rating, making this a call that investors will pay attention to even if it is more cautious than before.

In the accompanying report, Fustier highlights Chevron’s solid fundamentals: a strong 4Q25 performance with a 6% earnings beat driven by upstream earnings of $3.2 billion, production 2% above consensus, and buybacks at the high end of guidance at $3 billion. The company is targeting $18–19 billion in 2026 capex, expects upstream production growth of 7–10% despite a short‑term dip in Kazakh and US onshore volumes, and continues to deliver structural cost reductions, aiming for $3–4 billion in savings by the end of 2026. Venezuela remains a side story rather than a main driver, with potential 50% production growth there unlikely to materially move the needle for group cash flow.

Still, Fustier’s downgrade underscores a key theme: much of Chevron’s strength may already be reflected in the share price. After a 16% year‑to‑date rally driven by hopes around Venezuela and the broader oil price rally, valuations look stretched versus history, and CVX’s distribution yield now lags European peers like BP, Total, and Shell. For investors, the message is that Chevron remains a quality, cash‑generating major, but the easy gains may be behind it at current levels. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.