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Algoma Steel Guides to Q4 Loss as Blast Furnaces Wind Down and EAF Ramp-Up Advances

Story Highlights
  • Algoma Steel expects Q4 2025 shipments of 375,000–380,000 tons and a negative Adjusted EBITDA between $95 million and $105 million, pressured by tariffs and blast furnace wind-down costs.
  • The company is rapidly advancing its transition to electric arc furnace steelmaking, with one unit running six days a week and a second on schedule, aiming to bolster domestic steel capacity and sharply reduce emissions.
  • Looking for the best stocks to buy? Follow the recommendations of top-performing analysts.
Algoma Steel Guides to Q4 Loss as Blast Furnaces Wind Down and EAF Ramp-Up Advances

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The latest announcement is out from Algoma Steel Group ( (TSE:ASTL) ).

On January 8, 2026, Algoma Steel Group provided financial and operating guidance for its fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, projecting steel shipments of 375,000 to 380,000 tons and a negative Adjusted EBITDA of between $95 million and $105 million, reflecting the ongoing impact of steel tariffs and the planned wind-down of its blast furnace operations, which are expected to conclude in early 2026. Management highlighted that the first unit of its new electric arc furnace (EAF) is now running six days a week and that the second unit remains on schedule, underscoring that the company’s full transition to EAF steelmaking this quarter, along with efforts to expand finishing capabilities, is central to its strategy to strengthen domestic steelmaking capacity, support Canadian infrastructure and defense supply chains, and materially cut carbon emissions while underpinning future investment and competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ASTL) stock is a Hold with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Steel Group stock, see the TSE:ASTL Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on TSE:ASTL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:ASTL is a Neutral.

Algoma Steel Group’s overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and negative profit margins. While technical indicators show some bullish momentum, valuation concerns persist with a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both challenges and positive developments, such as strong liquidity and progress on strategic projects.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:ASTL stock, click here.

More about Algoma Steel Group

Algoma Steel Group Inc., based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, is a leading Canadian producer of high-quality hot and cold rolled sheet and plate steel products serving critical sectors such as energy, defense, automotive, shipbuilding, and infrastructure. The company is in the midst of a major transformation to electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking powered by Ontario’s clean electricity grid, coupled with a modernized plate mill and the launch of its lower‑emissions Volta-branded steel, positioning Algoma as a key player in large-scale industrial decarbonization and domestically sourced, sustainable steel.

Average Trading Volume: 813,446

Technical Sentiment Signal: Sell

Current Market Cap: C$617M

For a thorough assessment of ASTL stock, go to TipRanks’ Stock Analysis page.

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