Venezuelan Reserve Reality Tempers Long-Term Supply Outlook for Oil and Gas Markets

Fresh analysis of Venezuela’s vast reserves underscores that only a limited portion of the country’s heavy and extra-heavy crude can be profitably produced under current market and technological conditions, tempering assumptions about its long-term export potential. The reassessment highlights that much of Venezuela’s reported 300 billion barrels of “proven” reserves depend on high prices, intensive capital investment, and advanced upgrading technology, factors that constrain realistic supply growth and add uncertainty to future global balances. Against this backdrop, benchmark Oil – US Crude and Natural Gas prices remain sensitive to shifts in expectations for Venezuelan output, sanctions risk, and investment flows into heavy oil projects worldwide.

Over the past month, Oil – US Crude has advanced about 4.96%, a move consistent with a market that is still pricing in constrained supply growth from higher-cost producers and OPEC+ members facing operational or political challenges. Technically, the 1-day signal for US crude stands at Buy, indicating near-term upward momentum despite broader concerns about demand and macroeconomic headwinds. Natural Gas has rallied more sharply, with a roughly 36.6% gain over the last month, reflecting seasonal factors, storage dynamics, and heightened sensitivity to supply disruptions. Its 1-day technical outlook is also rated Buy, suggesting traders currently see further upside potential, though volatility in gas markets remains elevated. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.