U.S. Shale Output Seen at Risk if Crude Slumps Toward $40

U.S. shale output could contract significantly if crude prices retreat, according to analysis from Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad, who warned that production may drop by up to 400,000 barrels per day in 2026 should benchmark prices slide toward $40 a barrel amid an aggressive market-share push by OPEC producers. In contrast, U.S. shale supply is expected to hold roughly steady if prices remain near $60, a level seen as more supportive for investment in unconventional drilling. The assessment is in focus for investors tracking global oil benchmarks, including Oil – Brent Crude, Oil – US Crude, and U.S. Natural Gas, as shifting supply expectations could influence longer-term price floors and capital allocation across the energy sector.

Over the past month, Oil – US Crude (CM:CL) has advanced about 7.73%, while Brent Crude (CM:BZ) has gained roughly 8.32%, reflecting a market that is currently pricing in tighter balances rather than the deep price correction outlined in Rystad’s downside scenario. Natural Gas (CM:NG) has been notably more volatile, surging approximately 27.41% in the same period, a move that may be linked to weather-driven demand and storage dynamics rather than oil-focused OPEC policy alone. From a short-term technical perspective, Oil – US Crude shows a 1-day signal of Buy, Brent Crude carries a 1-day Buy indication, and Natural Gas also registers a 1-day Buy signal, suggesting near-term bullish momentum even as longer-horizon risks tied to potential OPEC actions and U.S. shale responsiveness remain in focus. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.