Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenue Slide Exposes Budget Vulnerabilities

Russia’s public finances came under renewed pressure in 2025 as oil and gas tax receipts dropped 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles, the lowest level since 2020, according to data cited in industry reports. The decline underscores how sensitive Moscow’s budget remains to global energy markets, with hydrocarbons still supplying around a quarter of federal revenue at a time of elevated defense and security spending. The downturn was driven less by lower output than by weaker benchmark prices for Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude, which saw their steepest annual fall since the pandemic era, compounded by a stronger rouble that reduces the domestic value of export earnings. Natural gas markets, represented by Natural Gas, also remained under pressure, limiting any offset to the oil-related shortfall.

Over the past month, oil prices have staged a modest recovery, with Oil – US Crude up about 6.3% and Oil – Brent Crude gaining roughly 6.9%, reflecting expectations of tighter supply and some stabilization in demand; both currently show a short-term technical bias of Buy and Buy, respectively, on a 1-day basis. In contrast, Natural Gas has fallen nearly 18.9% over the past month amid ample inventories and mild weather patterns, aligning with a 1-day technical indication of Sell. For investors, this divergence highlights how Russia’s fiscal strain is occurring despite a recent oil rebound, while gas remains in a weaker price trend. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.