Russia is set to enter 2026 with a pronounced decline in oil-related fiscal inflows, underscoring growing pressure on state finances that are heavily dependent on energy exports. Reuters estimates suggest January tax receipts from Russian crude production could fall to about 380 billion roubles ($4.7 billion), the weakest monthly level since late 2022 and more than 50% lower than a year earlier, as softer prices for both Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude weigh on revenues. The downturn highlights the sensitivity of Moscow’s budget, including military spending, to global commodity cycles and discounting of Russian barrels under sanctions, while broader energy markets, including Natural Gas, continue to respond to geopolitical and demand-side uncertainties.
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Over the past month, benchmark crude prices have softened, with Oil – US Crude down about 5.99% and Oil – Brent Crude lower by roughly 6.21%, reflecting concerns over global growth, ample supply, and mixed OPEC+ discipline, all of which contribute to pressure on Russian export values. Natural Gas has fallen more sharply, dropping around 15.92% in the same period amid mild weather patterns and comfortable storage levels in key consuming regions. From a short-term technical standpoint, Oil – US Crude currently shows a Sell signal, Oil – Brent Crude also flashes a Sell indication, while Natural Gas screens as a Hold, suggesting that, despite Russia’s fiscal squeeze, the immediate trading bias across major energy benchmarks remains cautious to negative. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.