Oversupply Seen Capping Oil Near $60 Despite Geopolitical Risks

A Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts suggests that persistent global oversupply is likely to cap crude prices around $60 per barrel this year, even against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions. The consensus forecasts see Oil – Brent Crude averaging $62.02 per barrel in 2026, modestly higher than December’s projection of $61.27, indicating slightly firmer expectations but no major shift in the long-term price outlook. The U.S. benchmark, Oil – US Crude (WTI), is projected to average $58.72 per barrel in 2026, reinforcing the view that abundant supply and disciplined production outside key OPEC+ cuts may continue to weigh on prices despite intermittent risk premiums from regional conflicts.

Over the past month, Brent prices have climbed 11.58%, reflecting a combination of risk-driven rallies and short-covering, yet the broader analyst consensus still points to a range-bound market anchored by supply fundamentals. WTI has gained 10.85% over the same period, narrowing its discount to Brent as U.S. demand indicators and inventory trends improve. From a short-term technical perspective, both Brent and WTI are currently flashing a 1-day Buy and Buy signal, respectively, suggesting near-term upward momentum even as medium-term forecasts imply limited upside. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.