Oil Volatility Persists as Iran Risk Premium Unwinds

Oil – US Crude futures experienced sharp intraday swings over the past week, moving in a roughly $4 range from a low of $58.45 to a high of $62.36 before ending Thursday at $59.17, marginally higher by $0.05, or 0.08%, for the period. Traders reacted to rapidly shifting geopolitical risk premia tied to unrest and government crackdowns in Iran, which initially fueled concerns over potential supply disruption before easing as immediate risks appeared to recede. The volatility was tempered by the return of Venezuelan barrels to the market, which helped offset some of the geopolitical bid and underscored how incremental supply changes can quickly recalibrate price expectations. International benchmark Oil – Brent Crude tracked the broader risk narrative, with spreads and relative performance reflecting shifting perceptions of geopolitical exposure between global and U.S. benchmarks.

Over the last month, prices for CM:CL are up about 5.52%, signaling that, despite the week’s reversals, the broader trend remains moderately constructive as the market balances geopolitical uncertainty with incremental supply recovery. On a 1-day basis, CM:CL is flashing a short-term Buy% signal, suggesting near-term momentum remains positive even as volatility rises. CM:BZ has gained roughly 6.39% over the same one-month window, slightly outperforming U.S. crude and indicating that global benchmarks are still pricing in a premium for geopolitical risk. However, its latest 1-day technical stance is a more cautious Hold%, reflecting a more balanced risk-reward setup after the recent run-up. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.