Oil Shorts Tested as Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Prices

Bearish sentiment that dominated the oil market earlier this year is being challenged as escalating geopolitical tensions tighten supply expectations. Forecasts that had anticipated a substantial crude glut are now being reassessed after a series of U.S. actions targeting Venezuela and signaling potential measures toward Iran, Mexico, and Colombia, alongside renewed unrest in Iran and diverging Saudi-UAE positions in Yemen. These developments have driven benchmark Oil – Brent Crude prices above $65 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark Oil – US Crude has also firmed, underscoring how geopolitical risk remains a key variable for supply stability and risk premiums in energy markets.

Over the past month, Oil – US Crude has advanced about 7.92%, reflecting a steady recovery as traders reprice the likelihood of a surplus and factor in possible disruptions to flows from key producing regions. The 1-day technical signal for U.S. crude currently indicates a Buy bias, suggesting short-term momentum remains skewed to the upside. Oil – Brent Crude has gained roughly 8.38% over the same period, outpacing U.S. crude and reinforcing its role as the primary barometer of geopolitical risk in seaborne crude markets; its 1-day technical outlook also points to a Buy signal. These moves highlight that earlier pessimistic positioning is increasingly misaligned with the evolving risk backdrop. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.