Nigeria’s crude output averaged about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, falling roughly 500,000 bpd short of the government’s production goal, according to local reports citing official data. The shortfall, which comes despite signs of recovery to around 1.6 million bpd in November, underscores ongoing operational and investment challenges in the country’s upstream sector, including discrepancies in rig activity data between national regulators and OPEC. The development is being watched by oil markets given Nigeria’s role within OPEC+ and its potential impact on supply dynamics for benchmark crudes such as Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude, as well as broader sentiment toward energy commodities including Natural Gas.
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Over the past month, prices for both major oil benchmarks have eased, with US crude down about 4.1% and Brent lower by roughly 3.8%, reflecting a mix of softer demand expectations and shifting supply risk premia as OPEC+ production trends remain in focus. Short-term technical indicators point to downside pressure, with a 1-day signal of Strong Sell for US crude and Strong Sell for Brent, suggesting momentum remains bearish despite Nigeria’s weaker-than-planned output. Natural gas has been significantly more volatile, sliding nearly 23.7% over the last month amid ample supply and weather-driven demand uncertainty, and currently carries a 1-day technical designation of Sell, indicating continued cautious positioning by traders. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.