Iran Unrest and Venezuela Uncertainty Revive Oil Supply Risk Premium

Brent crude futures rose toward $63 per barrel on Friday as political unrest in Iran revived concerns over potential supply disruptions from a key Middle Eastern producer, supporting an already stronger-than-expected start to 2026. At the same time, expectations for a rapid rebound in Venezuelan output have moderated, after the U.S. administration’s efforts to draw major U.S. oil companies into the country fell short and Treasury Secretary Bessent instead encouraged smaller “wildcatter” operators to expand drilling there. The combination of renewed geopolitical risk in Iran and a slower-than-feared ramp-up in Venezuela has tightened the perceived risk balance for Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude, while broader energy market sentiment remains cautious given recent weakness in Natural Gas.

Over the past month, Brent has edged up about 0.58%, reflecting a mild upward trend that aligns with its current 1-day technical stance of Hold, suggesting traders are weighing geopolitical risk against still-ample global supply. U.S. crude prices have been essentially flat, slipping roughly 0.25% over the same period, with the 1-day technical signal also at Hold, indicating a neutral short-term outlook as markets await clearer demand and inventory signals. In contrast, natural gas has dropped sharply, losing about 20.58% over the last month amid comfortable storage levels and softer seasonal demand, and its 1-day technical view stands at Sell, highlighting continued downside pressure. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.