Fossil Fuel Benchmarks Slip as Cheaper Green Hydrogen Looms

Growing optimism around a technological breakthrough that could lower the cost of green hydrogen production is drawing renewed attention to traditional energy benchmarks, as investors reassess long-term demand scenarios for fossil fuels. Any move toward cost-competitive green hydrogen in hard-to-abate sectors such as transport, steel, and shipping could eventually weigh on consumption of crude and natural gas, with implications for key benchmarks including Oil – US Crude, Oil – Brent Crude, and Natural Gas. While the shift will likely be gradual and dependent on scaling new technologies, the narrative reinforces a longer-term structural transition narrative within the energy complex.

Over the past month, prices have already been under pressure across these benchmarks, with Oil – US Crude down about 4.15% and Oil – Brent Crude lower by roughly 3.83%, reflecting a mix of demand uncertainty, macroeconomic concerns, and evolving expectations for future energy mixes. Natural Gas has seen a far steeper decline of about 23.69% over the same period, underscoring volatility in gas markets and sensitivity to both weather and structural demand expectations. From a short-term technical perspective, Oil – US Crude is flashing a Strong Sell signal, while Oil – Brent Crude also shows a Strong Sell indication and Natural Gas carries a Sell signal, suggesting near-term downside momentum persists even as investors weigh the longer-term implications of potentially cheaper green hydrogen. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.