Exxon Warns of Lower Q4 Upstream Profit as Crude Prices Weaken

Exxon Mobil signaled that its fourth-quarter upstream earnings are likely to be squeezed by softer crude prices, estimating a hit of roughly $800 million to $1.2 billion compared with prior periods. The company’s guidance reflects weaker benchmark pricing for both Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude, as market focus shifted toward oversupply risks and trade-related headwinds, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. For investors, the update underscores how quickly earnings leverage in integrated oil majors can swing with relatively modest percentage moves in global crude benchmarks.

Over the past month, Brent has declined about 3.83%, while US crude has lost roughly 4.15%, extending a broader retreat that has pressured upstream cash flows and could temper capital spending plans if sustained. From a short-term technical perspective, both Brent and US crude are flashing bearish momentum, with 1-day signals for Brent at Strong Sell and for US crude at Strong Sell, highlighting continued downside risk in the near term and potentially higher earnings volatility for oil producers. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.