Enverus Sees Venezuelan Oil Output Rebound With Limited Market Shock

Industry consultancy Enverus projects a significant rebound in Venezuelan crude output over the next decade following the political reset triggered by the capture of former president Nicolás Maduro by the Trump administration. Venezuelan production is expected to climb roughly 50% to about 1.5 million barrels per day by 2035, with a more optimistic case seeing volumes potentially tripling to 3 million barrels per day. Enverus also estimates that the 30–50 million barrels of oil reportedly ordered to be transferred from Venezuela to the U.S. will have a limited effect on global supply dynamics, suggesting only marginal pressure on international benchmarks such as Oil – Brent Crude and U.S. benchmark Oil – US Crude, while broader energy sentiment could remain more sensitive to longer-term production trajectories than to one-off cargo flows. Natural gas markets, represented by Natural Gas, may be indirectly influenced as shifts in oil supply expectations feed into cross-commodity positioning and risk appetite.

Over the past month, price action has been constructive for crude benchmarks, with U.S. crude (CM:CL) up about 7.9% and Brent (CM:BZ) advancing roughly 8.4%, moves that reflect tightening expectations and geopolitical risk premia rather than any immediate impact from Venezuelan flows. By contrast, natural gas (CM:NG) has fallen approximately 10.5% over the same period, underscoring weaker seasonal demand and ample storage despite ongoing volatility in the broader energy complex. Technically, near-term signals are skewed bullish for oil: CM:CL carries a 1-day Buy indication, while CM:BZ is also rated Buy, highlighting positive momentum and supportive trend structures. In contrast, CM:NG shows a short-term Sell signal, suggesting continued downside risk or consolidation for gas prices as traders reassess demand expectations. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.