EIA Boosts OPEC Capacity Estimates as Oil Benchmarks Weaken

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised higher its estimates of OPEC’s effective crude production capacity in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, signaling that the cartel can pump more oil than previously assumed over 2024–2026. The update implies additional potential supply of several hundred thousand barrels per day versus earlier projections, which could weigh on medium-term price expectations for global benchmarks such as Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude, while also influencing sentiment across the broader energy complex, including Natural Gas, as investors reassess supply-demand balances and OPEC’s ability to manage market tightness.

Over the past month, prices have softened across key energy contracts: Brent crude is down about 3.1%, U.S. crude futures have slipped roughly 2.5%, and natural gas has fallen more sharply, losing around 12.1%, reflecting a combination of ample supply, seasonal dynamics, and a more comfortable forward balance. In the near term, technical indicators point to a cautious stance, with 1-day signals flashing Sell for Brent and Sell for U.S. crude, while natural gas shows a more neutral 1-day Hold signal, suggesting traders are awaiting fresh catalysts before committing to a clearer directional view. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.