Chinese Refiners Seen Replacing Venezuelan Supply with Iranian Crude as Trade Flows Shift

Chinese independent refiners are expected to pivot toward heavier crude supplies from Iran in the coming months to compensate for a halt in Venezuelan shipments, according to traders and analysts. The shift follows an agreement between Caracas and Washington that will channel up to $2 billion of Venezuelan crude to the United States, tightening availability to Chinese buyers. The reconfiguration of trade flows underscores how geopolitical decisions continue to redirect barrels in the global market, with potential implications for price differentials and refining margins in Asia, and could influence benchmarks such as Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude as markets adjust to changing heavy crude supply patterns.

Over the past month, both key crude benchmarks have traded lower, reflecting macroeconomic concerns and recalibrated expectations for demand amid shifting supply sources. Oil – US Crude has declined about 4.14% in the last 30 days, while Oil – Brent Crude is down roughly 3.44% over the same period, suggesting a modest softening in market sentiment despite emerging supply-side developments. On a 1-day basis, technical indicators currently point to a Sell signal for CM:CL and a Sell signal for CM:BZ, indicating short-term downside bias even as traders monitor how increased Iranian flows into Asia may reshape regional pricing and differentials. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.