Brent Tracks Lower as US-EU Policy Split on Belarus Adds Nuance to Geopolitical Risk

Differences are emerging between Washington and Brussels over how to approach Belarus, with potential implications for regional risk premia in crude benchmarks such as Oil – Brent Crude. The U.S. has moved to partially relax sanctions on Minsk in response to the release of political prisoners, seeking incremental engagement with President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s government. In contrast, the European Union is maintaining and expanding restrictive measures, underscoring a harder line on security and human-rights concerns along NATO’s eastern flank. For energy markets, diverging policy stances may influence expectations around future sanctions, transit routes, and geopolitical risk in Europe’s broader neighborhood, factors that can periodically affect price volatility even without direct supply disruptions.

Over the past month, Brent prices have fallen about 7.2%, reflecting a broader pullback driven by concerns over demand resilience, higher-for-longer interest rates, and a recalibration of geopolitical risk premiums as immediate supply threats have not fully materialized. From a shorter-term perspective, Brent’s 1-day technical picture currently points to a Sell signal, suggesting near-term downside or consolidation pressure as traders weigh macroeconomic data against shifting geopolitical dynamics, including the evolving Western policy split on Belarus.