Crypto company Coinbase Global (COIN) is set to release its Q1 2025 results on May 8. COIN stock has lost over 20% so far this year due to weaker trading volumes, regulatory concerns, and declining stablecoin revenue. Also, broader economic issues, including new tariffs and fears of a recession, have dampened investor sentiment towards riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Wall Street analysts anticipate that the company will report earnings of $1.87 per share, reflecting a 57% year-over-year decrease.
Meanwhile, revenues are expected to rise by 29% from the same quarter last year, reaching $2.07 billion. Notably, COIN has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company missed earnings estimates just twice out of the previous nine quarters.
Analyst’s Views on COIN Ahead of Q1 Results
Ahead of the Q1 print, Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler kept a Buy rating on the stock but cut his price target from $290 to $260 per share. He trimmed his Q1 estimates, citing weaker trading volumes in April and cautious signs from Robinhood’s Q1 earnings call. While Brendler still expects strong revenue from stablecoins, he now thinks non-trading blockchain revenue might miss the company’s forecast. Still, he said this short-term weakness was mostly expected, and Coinbase can cut costs if needed to protect profits.
According to Main Street Data, Coinbase reported trading volume of $439 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 137% increase from the previous quarter. This surge was driven by significant growth in both retail and institutional trading activities. For the same period, Coinbase reported stablecoin revenue of $226 million, down 9% from the previous quarter.
Looking ahead, Brendler remains positive on Coinbase. He expects crypto activity to pick up later this year and believes growing non-trading revenue could help lift the stock’s value over time.
Options Traders Anticipate a Large Move
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting a 7.81% move in either direction.
Is COIN Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Overall, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on COIN stock based on eleven Buys, ten Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. The average COIN price target of $270.85 per share implies 37.56% upside potential.
