China’s trade engine picked up steam in June, offering a mixed bag for investors watching global growth and supply chains. Exports rose 5.8% year-over-year, outpacing expectations of 4.0% and improving from May’s 4.8% gain. Imports increased 1.1% versus a forecasted 0.5% drop, marking the first monthly import growth of 2025.
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The stronger-than-expected numbers came after Beijing and Washington agreed to a temporary tariff truce in May. Under the 90-day agreement, tariffs on Chinese goods bound for the U.S. were reduced from 145% to 30%, effective until August 10. Chinese exporters responded by accelerating outbound shipments, especially in rare earths and other critical materials.
Still, shipments to the U.S. dropped 16.1% in June, continuing a downward trend but improving from the 34.5% plunge in May. U.S. importers appear to have pulled forward orders amid concerns that tariffs could rise again after the grace period ends.
Trade Diversification and Tariff Watch
China’s trade surplus widened to 114.78 billion dollars in June, up from 103.22 billion dollars in May. Economists had expected a surplus of 111.3 billion dollars. The data points to sustained demand for Chinese goods abroad even as domestic demand remains under pressure.
Exports to Southeast Asia rose 13.0% in the first half of 2025, while exports to the European Union climbed 6.6%. Those gains helped offset falling trade with the U.S., where ongoing restrictions on technology and stricter scrutiny of transshipped goods have continued to weigh on volumes. Last month, Washington announced a 40% tariff on goods routed through Vietnam, widely viewed as a move to curb indirect Chinese exports.
China’s GDP for Q2 is due July 15. Economists expect 5.2% growth, slightly above Beijing’s 5.0% annual target. In Q1, the economy expanded 5.4%, helped by strong exports and targeted stimulus efforts. Stocks with exposure to global trade, like FedEx (FDX), United Parcel Service (UPS), and Caterpillar (CAT), could react to signs of resilience or slowdown in Chinese demand. Semiconductor firms such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Qualcomm (QCOM) may also be in focus as trade talks touch on chip tech access.
We used TipRanks’ Comparison Tool to analyze the stocks mentioned in this piece, highlighting those that could see upside or downside as trade talks unfold.
