China’s central bank has increased its official gold (CM:XAUUSD) reserves for eight straight months. By the end of June 2025, the People’s Bank of China reported holding 2,299 metric tons of gold. That’s a big jump from the 2,000 tons it declared just three years ago.
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But analysts and gold traders believe that is only part of the story. Some suggest China is buying much more gold behind the scenes. They point to trade patterns and import data that don’t add up. The real total, some argue, could exceed 5,000 tons. That would make China one of the largest gold holders in modern history.
Why China Might Be Hiding It
There’s a strategic logic behind the secrecy. If China openly revealed how much gold it is buying, it could push prices up, making future purchases more expensive. Gold, after all, is a finite and highly sensitive asset. The bigger the buyer, the more important it is to move quietly.
“Given how much gold it’s buying, it’s quite sensible for China to limit public disclosures where possible,” said Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals.
Countries Challenge the Dollar’s Reign
China’s gold stockpiling accelerated after 2022, when the U.S. and its allies froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. That moment shocked many central banks around the world. They saw firsthand how the dollar could be used as a political weapon. Gold, on the other hand, cannot be frozen. It cannot be canceled. It exists outside the global banking system.
That’s why nations that don’t fully trust the U.S. (like China) want more of it. They want reserves that can’t be touched by sanctions or geopolitics.
What the Numbers Really Show
Officially, the PBoC added 225 metric tons of gold in 2023. It has added more in 2024 and 2025. But gold analysts point to large unexplained flows from the U.K. to China, even during times when gold traded cheaper in Shanghai than in London. That makes no economic sense for private buyers. It does, however, make sense for a central bank acquiring gold for strategic purposes.
One expert, Jan Nieuwenhuijs, estimates China’s true holdings may already exceed 5,000 tons, based on tracking unreported purchases and global gold flows.
What This Means for Markets
If China is reducing its dollar exposure and replacing it with gold, it could weaken demand for U.S. Treasuries and pressure the dollar over time. That could raise borrowing costs in the U.S., push inflation higher, and support a long-term bull case for gold.
As the dollar slides, already down 9% this year, gold becomes more attractive to investors worldwide. The metal is currently trading around $3,316 per ounce, having pulled back slightly from its April peak of $3,509. Analysts say it could rise again if the Fed cuts rates or if market volatility spikes.
