Trump Claims Major U.S.-India Trade Shift: Potential Boost for Energy, Industrials and Tech—If It Materializes

President Trump has posted a new announcement on Truth Social, the social media platform. He wrote:

“It was an Honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and, a Powerful and Respected Leader of his Country. We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week! Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%. They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO. The Prime Minister also committed to “BUY AMERICAN,” at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products. Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that GET THINGS DONE, something that cannot be said for most. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

How Will Trump’s Statement Affect the Stock Market?

This latest post has the potential to affect the stock market. That’s because Markets could initially react positively to Trump’s post as it suggests expanded U.S.-India trade, higher U.S. energy and agricultural exports, and reduced tariffs, potentially benefiting energy names (XOM, CVX, VDE, XLE, OIH, BTU), agriculture/industrial plays (ADM, DE, XLI, VIS, IYJ, XME, SLX), and India exposure (EPI) on hopes of stronger bilateral flows. U.S. tech and mega-cap growth (AAPL, MSFT, QQQ, XLK, VGT) could see a sentiment boost from a “stronger relationship” with India and the prospect of fewer non‑tariff barriers, though details are vague and policy execution is uncertain. However, because this is a political statement rather than a formal agreement, the reaction could be muted or short‑lived, with gold miners (GDX) potentially pressured if investors interpret the message as slightly de‑escalatory for geopolitical risk, while actual repricing will depend on confirmation from official channels and Congress’s stance on trade changes.

Here are some of the stocks that might be affected:
Apple Inc ((AAPL)),
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ((ADM)),
Chevron ((CVX)),
Deere & Company ((DE)),
Exxon Mobil Corp. ((XOM)),
Microsoft ((MSFT)),
Invesco QQQ Trust ((QQQ)),
Vanguard Industrials ETF ((VIS)),
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund ((XLI)),
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ((XLK)),
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ((XLE)),
VanEck Gold Miners ETF ((GDX)),
VanEck Oil Services ETF ((OIH)),
Vanguard Energy ETF ((VDE)),
Vanguard Information Technology ETF ((VGT)),
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF ((XME)),
iShares U.S. Industrials ETF ((IYJ)),
VanEck Steel ETF ((SLX)),
iShares MSCI India ETF ((INDA)),
Peabody Energy (BTU) ((BTU)).