Tesla (TSLA) may be in for a rough quarter, as new projections from Cox Automotive suggest U.S. vehicle deliveries could drop by 21% year-over-year in Q2. The anticipated slowdown raises fresh concerns about demand in Tesla’s core market and could pressure the stock further.
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Robotaxi Fever May Overshadow It All
While Q2 numbers may disappoint, the impact on TSLA stock could be limited, thanks to renewed excitement around its robotaxi ambitions. Investor sentiment is already high after the company launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, last weekend. After the robotaxi launch, TSLA stock surged about 8% on Monday this week, pushing it more than 40% above its April 2025 low.
The rally is fueled by investor optimism that the robotaxi rollout could reignite growth. Despite recent sales declines and mounting criticism over CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement, the new initiative is helping restore market confidence.
Overall, the launch marks a critical step in Tesla’s shift from EVs to AI-powered mobility. It also holds the potential to unlock substantial new revenue streams and reshape the company’s long-term growth outlook.
Another Quarter, Another Bummer
While overall U.S. new vehicle sales are projected to rise 1.7% in Q2, Tesla is expected to see a sharp decline. This drop comes even though the U.S. remains Tesla’s biggest market. The forecast aligns with estimates from well-followed Tesla analyst Troy Teslike, who predicts a 24% drop in second-quarter sales across North America.
Tesla’s struggles aren’t limited to the U.S. Sales have also weakened in two of its other key markets, China and Europe. Notably, Tesla’s EV sales in Europe fell 27.9% year-over-year in May, marking the fifth straight monthly decline, per ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association) data. In China, vehicle registrations are roughly 5% below Q1 levels and down 17% year-over-year in the first 12 weeks of Q2, signaling continued weakness.
Looking ahead, FactSet’s analyst consensus expects Tesla’s global vehicle sales to decline about 6% this year, marking a second consecutive year of lower annual sales. Meanwhile, Teslike sees a steeper fall, forecasting a 15% drop for 2025. In Q1 2025, Tesla reported a 13% drop in EV deliveries.
Is Tesla a Good Stock to Buy Right Now?
On Wall Street, analysts have maintained a neutral stance on Tesla stock. According to TipRanks, TSLA stock has received a Hold consensus rating, with 14 Buys, 12 Holds, and nine Sells assigned in the last three months. The average Tesla share price target is $287.0, suggesting a potential downside of 12.4% from the current level.
