Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock is bracing for a Q1 reality check, and the question on everyone’s mind is simple: Can the Ozempic hype actually hold up? With earnings dropping Tuesday 7th May, investors are looking to see whether explosive demand for weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy will be enough to carry the stock through what could be a mixed quarter.
Novo’s EPS Forecasts Call for Modest Beat
Analysts expect Q1 Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.83, up from $0.69 last year. Revenue is expected to come in at $9.8 billion, also above the $8.8 billion reported in Q1 2024. The whisper number is higher, so a miss could pop this Ozempic-fueled bubble.
GLP-1 Momentum Carries the Quarter
What’s propping this ship up? One word: Ozempic. Novo’s GLP-1 drug family—including Wegovy—is expected to have carried the bulk of revenue growth. The global appetite for weight-loss and diabetes treatments has shown few signs of slowing.
Analysts at JPMorgan (JPM) said in a note, “Continued supply expansion and market penetration will be key this quarter. The bar is high.”
NVO Share Repurchases May Keep Flowing
Novo has been hoovering up its own shares like clockwork. It spent over $1 billion on buybacks last quarter, and the company has signaled it will continue supporting the stock through aggressive repurchase programs.
Investors Should Watch Out for Supply Constraints
Supply constraints have haunted Novo Nordisk before. Any mention of bottlenecks in manufacturing could send shares wobbling. Investors are also watching for updated 2025 guidance, especially if management sees price erosion or rising R&D costs.
Is Novo Nordisk a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Despite all the excitement around Ozempic, analysts appear to be taking a more cautious stance on Novo Nordisk stock. According to TipRanks, the consensus rating from nine Wall Street analysts is a “Hold.” Out of the nine, three rate the stock a Buy, five say Hold, and one gives it a Sell.
The average 12-month NVO price target is $83.20, suggesting a potential upside of just over 20% from the current price of $69.12. Estimates range from a low of $61 to a high of $102, reflecting the uncertainty around how much growth is left in the GLP-1 story—or how much risk is tied to capacity constraints, pricing, or future competition.
While sentiment isn’t exactly bearish, it’s clear Wall Street is looking for more than just strong Q1 numbers. Guidance, margins, and management’s tone on supply chain improvements could swing forecasts in either direction.
