Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is steadily gaining ground in the AI chip race, backed by strong demand for its Instinct MI350 GPUs, a $6 billion buyback program, and fast-growing data center sales. The stock is up 15% this year, with most of that coming in the past three months.
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But new trade risks are coming into focus. A 90-day pause on broad U.S. tariffs is set to expire on July 9, potentially reinstating duties on semiconductor imports. That adds to the pressure AMD already faces from U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips sold to China.
So, can AMD stock continue rising? Wall Street is moderately bullish, pointing to AI tailwinds and product momentum. However, some analysts remain cautious. They point out that AMD still trails Nvidia (NVDA) in software and warn that rising trade barriers could weigh on margins and limit international growth.
What’s at Stake for AMD Stock on July 9?
Back in April, President Donald Trump announced a wave of new tariffs but paused many of them for 90 days to give countries time to negotiate trade deals. That pause is set to expire on July 9, potentially triggering tariffs of up to 50% on imports from several nations—including key tech components like semiconductors.
Unless individual countries secure new agreements, these duties will go into effect. The White House has signaled it does not plan to extend the pause, which could raise import costs in sectors vital to companies like AMD.
AMD Took a Hit from China
AMD is already feeling the impact of U.S. export restrictions. In April, the government blocked shipments of advanced AI chips to China and certain other regions. The company expects the move to reduce its 2025 revenue by about $1.5 billion, along with an $800 million one-time charge.
In response, AMD is trying to make lower-powered chips that follow U.S. export rules. But how AMD handles this challenge will affect how much it can keep selling in one of its biggest markets, China.
Analysts Stay Bullish on AMD
Many analysts remain positive on AMD’s outlook, even as trade risks grow. They see the company making progress in narrowing the gap with Nvidia, thanks to upcoming AI chips and its recent acquisitions.
In a note dated July 2, Mizuho’s Top analyst, Vijay Rakesh, maintained a Buy rating on AMD stock and raised the price target to $152 from $135. Rakesh expects better momentum in AMD’s upcoming MI355X chips in the second half of 2025, driven by strong demand for AI accelerators. He also noted that major cloud providers are still looking for alternatives to Nvidia, which could benefit AMD going forward.
Is AMD a Buy or Sell?
Amidst macro challenges and concerns about chip export restrictions, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Advanced Micro Devices stock, based on 24 Buys and 10 Holds. The average AMD stock price target of $132.76 indicates a possible downside of 4.16% from current levels.
