There are plenty of questions surrounding Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Many revolve around the company’s polarizing CEO Elon Musk and his increasingly unpopular political activities, others are focused on weakening EV sales in an increasingly competitive market, and then there are those who are wondering whether the company’s big bet on robotics will actually pay off.
In the here and now, it’s safe to say that the company has been on a downward trajectory throughout 2025. EV sales and deliveries are down in key markets, and rising trade tensions are certainly not helping to calm jittery investors. All told, TSLA shares are down 33% year-to-date, even after a recent bounce.
Still, if there’s one constant in the Tesla universe, it’s Musk’s relentless optimism. He’s forecasting a 20% to 30% jump in EV sales this year and doubling down on his moonshot: the humanoid Optimus robots. According to Musk, these machines could eventually rake in a jaw-dropping $10 trillion in revenue — yes, that’s trillion with a “T.”
One top investor, known by the pseudonym Nexus Research, would like to offer a “reality check” on this grandest of claims.
“While the CEO is promising big payoffs from its humanoid robotic endeavors, the truth is that Tesla is lagging competitors in the space,” notes the 5-star investor, who is among the top 4% of TipRanks’ stock pros.
Nexus points out that humanoid robots are far from a Blue Ocean, with plenty of other companies moving full steam ahead with their own prototypes. These include well-known names such as Hyundai, BMW, and Google. In that vein, the investor also believes that all the other Magnificent 7 companies are actively seeking to join the physical AI bonanza as well.
In addition, Nexus mentions that recurring software revenues will surely serve as a large portion of any $10 trillion cash cow. So far, however, the investor has not been encouraged by the developments the company has shared publicly on that front.
“Tesla has barely offered any details on adjacent software services with its Optimus humanoids, while competitors are already making strides on this front,” adds Nexus.
To wit, Nexus believes investors should not be seduced by the $10 trillion figure floated by Musk – especially when other tech companies likely have a clearer path to becoming the ‘picks and shovels’ of the robotics and physical AI future.
“Investors that are buying the dip on the prospects ‘Optimus’ should think twice,” concludes Nexus Research, who rates TSLA shares a Sell. (To watch Nexus Research’s track record, click here)
Wall Street, on the other hand, has yet to make up its mind. With 14 Buy, 11 Hold, and 11 Sell ratings, TSLA holds a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. Yet, its 12-month average price target of $335.32 would yield gains of ~23% in the year ahead. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.