Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) shares, much like those of several other names in the quantum computing space, have been on one almighty run this past year, surging more than 1,500% on a trailing-twelve-month basis. That kind of surge speaks to how aggressively investors have been bidding up quantum-related names, even as the space remains highly speculative and prone to sharp swings. In that spirit, after reaching a peak in mid-October, RGTI has since pulled back by about 55%.
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It’s this very shift that Benchmark’s David Williams, an analyst who ranks among the top 1% on Wall Street, believes may be taking hold.
“While we remain constructive on progress, particularly its chiplet-based architecture and continued roadmap execution, the recent volatility across emerging tech and AI sectors has tempered near-term investor enthusiasm for quantum-related shares,” the 5-star analyst said. “The long-term investment case remains intact, supported by ongoing technical milestones, expanding strategic partnerships, and sustained public and private funding. However, after a period of significant appreciation through mid-October, shares have entered a consolidation phase.”
Williams’ comments come in the wake of RGTI’s Q3 readout, during which the company updated its technology roadmap through 2027, detailing the next phase of scaling and performance improvements. The 100-qubit chip is still slated for a release by the end of the year, targeting 99.5% fidelity and will represent the industry’s “largest multi-chip quantum processor and a key proof point of Rigetti’s scalable architecture.”
Looking ahead, the roadmap includes a 150+ qubit system by late 2026 with 99.7% median two-qubit fidelity, followed by a 1,000+ qubit system by the end of 2027, aiming for 99.8% fidelity. Although further improvements in fidelity will be needed, the company is still confident of reaching performance levels generally associated with quantum advantage – around 1,000+ qubits, 99.9% fidelity, built-in error correction, and sub-50ns gate speeds. Williams believes these milestones underscore that the company’s chiplet-based architecture provides a strong foundation for scalability and a “credible path” toward achieving quantum advantage later in the decade.
While RGTI was not among those initially chosen to advance to Phase B of the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI), Williams views this as “largely conceptual” and not reflective of its technical capabilities, performance, or chiplet architecture. Management indicated they remain in active discussions with DARPA, have received “constructive feedback,” and are optimistic about participating in Phase B and throughout the seven-year program. The company is currently refining its proposal to include more details on error correction and long-range coupling.
All told, Williams remains a RGTI bull, summing up: “The recent pullback is healthy… we encourage investors to be opportunistic buyers on further weakness as the next catalysts develop.”
Accordingly, Williams assigns a Buy rating on RGTI shares, along with a $40 price target, implying one-year gains of 37%. (To watch Williams’ track record, click here)
Most of Williams’ colleagues are also RGTI bulls. The stock claims a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on a mix of 5 Buys and 2 Holds. At $40.60, the average price target factors in a 12-month gain of 59%. (See RGTI stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.