Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock has been striving to become a significant player in the EV industry and challenge segment leader Tesla, but its efforts have been weighed down by a series of headwinds. Recently, these have included waning demand, the loss of regulatory credit revenue in the second half of 2025, roughly $2,000 per-unit tariff pressures on costs, and aggressive discounting from rival EV makers that have eroded pricing power and margins.
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However, investors are pinning their hopes on the upcoming launch of the R2, a midsize electric SUV, positioned below its premium R1 lineup at an ASP of ~$50,000. The R2 is slated to begin production in 1H26 at the company’s Normal, Illinois plant, with initial deliveries targeted for the same year. The recently expanded facility has already started turning out validation builds, with roughly fifty thousand units planned for 2026. Strong demand and limited early capacity mean the model will likely remain hard to get through 2027, while broader availability hinges on Rivian’s new Georgia factory, which is not expected to add volume before 2028.
Needham analyst Chris Pierce believes the new model could represent something of a game-changer for the EV maker, noting: “The size of the potential market opportunity for the R2 is encouraging when looking across current EV and ICE offerings at similar price points, and even more so vs modest consensus FY26 R2 delivery estimates.”
Pierce’s optimism is underpinned by survey data that suggests Rivian’s brand is resonating in regions where EV adoption is still at an early stage. In markets like Charlotte, Nashville, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, respondents showed “strong RIVN brand awareness, limited negative perception and encouraging purchase intent.” About 60% were already familiar with the brand, 41% viewed it favorably, and roughly one-third said they would likely consider the R2 if priced competitively. That willingness, paired with the R2’s more accessible price point compared to the R1, points to Rivian’s potential to broaden its customer base.
Another factor standing in Rivian’s stead is that the R2 will debut in a more established market than the R1, where Rivian acted as the “category creator.” The company is looking to leverage strong customer satisfaction with the R1 and rising brand awareness to fuel demand for its next model.
All told, Pierce assigns RIVN shares a Buy rating, though his $14 price target implies only 6% upside from current levels. (To watch Pierce’s track record, click here)
6 other analysts also rate RIVN a Buy, yet with an additional 13 Holds and 3 Sells, the stock claims a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus rating. At $13.83, the average target suggests upside of 4% over the next year. (See RIVN stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.