Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) saw out 2025 making fewer deliveries than it did in either of the prior two years. At the same time, the picture on the earnings front has been moving in a similar direction, with analyst estimates revised mostly lower over the past few years as confidence in the near-term outlook has softened.
Claim 70% Off TipRanks Premium
- Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions
- Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential
However, with 2026 now at play, Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas sees signs that a meaningful inflection point may finally be approaching. After years of anticipation and heavy marketing, Rivian is set to launch its more affordable R2 model in the first half of 2026. In Gianarikas’ view, the R2 is the first vehicle to fully align with Rivian’s long-term strategy, pairing the brand’s adventure-oriented identity with a price point designed to appeal to a much broader audience than its current premium lineup. The model “reflects Rivian’s mission to deliver its distinctive EV experience” to a wider customer base, while also incorporating advanced tech, such as zonal architecture and ECU consolidation.
With an expected starting price of around $45,000, Gianarikas believes the R2 appears well-positioned to address a key segment of the U.S. auto market, where the average new-vehicle transaction price exceeded $50,000 for the first time in September. “With pricing slightly below that average, the R2 sits squarely in the mass-market sweet spot, allowing it to appeal to a wider range of mainstream buyers rather than only premium EV enthusiasts,” Gianarikas went on to add.
Tesla followed a similar trajectory, Gianarikas points out, with sales accelerating after the introduction of the Model 3 and Model Y, which were likewise priced to appeal to a broader customer base. The analyst sees a “liquid pool” consisting of several hundred thousand vehicles for Rivian in the U.S. alone, with Europe representing the next phase of expansion.
Talking of Tesla, Gianarikas also thinks that the US “lacks any true EV alternative” to the EV leader, believing there is a “massive chasm” between it and the nearest competitor. But Rivian has the potential to emerge as a credible mass-market number 2.
“As other OEMs retreat from EV commitments — either by design or compelled by demand issues — we believe Rivian has a unique, timely opportunity to push forward, pull ahead of the non-Tesla pack, and establish itself as the next American auto icon,” the analyst further said.
All told, Gianarikas thinks Rivian’s outlook for 2026 appears “truly inflectional,” with the R2 platform positioned as the primary growth driver and the accelerated rollout of advanced autonomous-driving capabilities serving as a “powerful force multiplier.”
Bottom line, Gianarikas assigns RIVN shares a Buy rating along with a $21 price target, implying the stock will gain 8% in the months ahead. (To watch Gianarikas’ track record, click here)
7 other analysts also take a bullish stance on RIVN, and with an additional 7 Holds and 3 Sells, the stock receives a Moderate Buy consensus rating. With the shares up by 14% over the past 6 months, some on the Street think the stock has surged too high; to wit, the $17.44 average price target factors in a 12-month slide of ~14%. (See RIVN stock forecast)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.