In a recent update to its energy sector coverage, Bank of America (BofA) (BAC) raised its price target for Exxon Mobil (XOM) from $118 to $129. Analyst Jean Ann Salisbury maintained a Neutral rating on the stock, suggesting that while the company has strong catalysts, the current valuation reflects most of its immediate potential. The revision is part of a broader adjustment across integrated oil, refining, and midstream companies as the global energy landscape faces significant upheaval.
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Geopolitical Turmoil Lifts Global Oil Floor
The primary driver behind BofA’s target increase is the sudden spike in geopolitical risk. The removal of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has left the future of the country’s massive oil reserves in question. While some investors hope for a long-term production boost, the short-term reality involves a bottleneck in the flow of sanctioned barrels, which has tightened the global supply of heavy crude.
Simultaneously, widespread unrest in Iran has added a war premium to front-month crude prices. Analysts estimate that even a partial removal of Iranian exports could push Brent crude toward $71 per barrel by the second quarter of 2026. These events have forced banks to re-evaluate their price floors for integrated oil majors that benefit from higher commodity prices.
Exxon Mobil Maintains Strong Operational Momentum
Exxon Mobil is not just relying on global chaos for its growth. The company is currently on track to buy back $20 billion worth of its own shares this year while maintaining its 43-year streak of dividend increases. Its production in the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana remains a primary source of low-cost growth, with daily output expected to hit 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2030.
Despite these positives, the Neutral rating remains because of high expectations. Salisbury notes that while the price target is higher, the stock is already trading at a premium compared to its peers. The firm believes the market has largely priced in the current benefits of high production and geopolitical risk.
Is Exxon Mobil a Good Stock to Buy?
Turning to TipRanks, Exxon Mobil stock (XOM) has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buys and seven Holds assigned in the last three months. The average 12-month XOM price target sits at $135.11, implying a downside risk of 1.3%.
