Tom Lee is no longer speaking in absolutes when it comes to Bitcoin’s biggest bull targets. The BitMine Immersion (BMNR) chairman said this week that while he still believes Bitcoin can clear $100,000 before the end of the year, a return to October’s record high near $125,100 is now just a “maybe.”
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“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” Lee said during an interview with CNBC. It marks the first public softening of the $250,000 year end target that Lee had repeated throughout most of 2024.
The shift reflects growing realism after Bitcoin’s sharp October correction. The asset slid into a downtrend following a $19 billion liquidation wave tied to broader market turmoil. Bitcoin only reclaimed the $90,000 level this week after spending six straight days below it.
Market Volatility Tests the Bull Case
Bitcoin’s technical damage has made it tougher to argue for a straight line higher. The pullback followed U.S. tariff headlines that triggered forced selling across crypto markets, dragging sentiment lower at the exact moment investors had expected momentum to accelerate.
Even with the weakness, Lee maintains that Bitcoin’s strongest days often arrive in short bursts. “I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end,” he said, noting that Bitcoin historically makes most of its gains in just ten trading days each year.
That idea is widely shared across the industry. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has previously said missing Bitcoin’s best ten days typically means missing nearly all of its long-term returns. In 2024, Bitcoin’s strongest ten days produced a combined 52% gain while the other 355 days posted an average loss.
History Shapes Confidence and Caution
Lee’s forecasting record cuts both ways. In January 2018, he projected Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022. That target arrived three years late, only hitting that level in October 2025. The delay still weighs on today’s expectations.
At the same time, Lee has nailed major turning points. In 2017, he called for $20,000 by 2022 in a base case and $55,000 in a bull case. Bitcoin achieved both milestones ahead of schedule.
This history explains why some investors continue to take Lee seriously even as his boldest target fades. The revised tone does not erase his long-term conviction. It simply reflects a market that no longer moves in straight lines.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $90,823.49.
