Bitcoin Sets Up for Another Monster Rally as War-Time Fractal Returns

Bitcoin is back in familiar territory, not just in price, but in pattern. The crypto giant has bounced off key support after a sharp drop, and the setup mirrors the same fractal that sparked an 80% rally during the Israel-Iran conflict in late 2024. If history rhymes, this breakout could be the opening move in Bitcoin’s next leg toward $150,000 — or higher.

BTC Brushes Off Geopolitical Panic — Again

Bitcoin fell 5.5% last week, dipping to around $102,800 after renewed Israel-Iran tensions flared up. But that selloff didn’t last. BTC bounced hard, reclaiming $105,500 in short order.

The recovery wasn’t random. Price held right at the 50-day simple moving average — the same technical level that acted as a springboard during October 2024’s missile panic, when Bitcoin tanked 8.8% before exploding 80% higher in two months.

This is the same setup. Same stress. Same support. And potentially the same outcome.

Whales Buy The Fear — Again

On-chain data is already showing the big money stepping in. Whale wallets are scooping up supply on every dip, according to CryptoQuant data.

Analysts say this is a familiar playbook: geopolitical fear shakes out weak hands, while whales and smart money use the volatility to build positions. A study from ETC Group found that Bitcoin typically recovers from geopolitical drops in under 50 days — and more often than not, goes on to break new highs.

It’s resilience by design. War jitters shake markets. Bitcoin absorbs the blow, and then rallies harder.

Fractal Repeats As Bitcoin Eyes Explosive Liquidity Grab

Market analyst Merlijn The Trader isn’t mincing words. “Same structure. Same trap. Same breakout,” he said, pointing to an identical pattern unfolding now: a dip, followed by a liquidity grab beneath range lows, and a violent breakout above trendline resistance.

That’s what happened just before Bitcoin cleared $100,000 in late 2024. The same script is playing out again — only this time, with BTC already hovering above $105K.

Analysts say if the breakout plays out cleanly, Bitcoin could surge to $130K, $150K, even $200K by year-end.

Macro Winds Favor BTC

Beyond technicals and trader patterns, the macro backdrop is shifting fast in Bitcoin’s favor. Rate cut expectations are rising. US-China trade tensions are cooling. Inflation pressure is easing. This is rocket fuel for risk-on assets — and Bitcoin is sitting at the front of the launchpad. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $104,907.11.