Bitcoin’s recent slide has traders and analysts questioning whether the 2025 bull run has finally run out of steam. As BTC struggles to hold key support levels, warnings of a deep correction are growing louder. Some technical experts now believe a 50% price crash is on the table, and market sentiment appears to be unraveling rapidly.
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Analysts Say the Clock Is Ticking on Bitcoin’s Bull Run
Bitcoin’s fall to $103,500 on Friday triggered more than $916 million in leveraged long liquidations, according to on-chain data. This sudden move has reignited fears that the latest crypto rally may have peaked, especially after two weeks of failed attempts to stay above the critical $110,000 level.
CryptoBird, a prominent analyst on X, believes time is almost up. “The Bitcoin bull run ends in 10 days,” the analyst warned, noting that historical cycle patterns suggest a peak is near. According to their analysis, the market has already completed 99.3% of the current cycle based on a 1,058-day timeframe since the last cycle low. Only 0.7% of the cycle remains, with October 24 marked as the likely peak date.
Moreover, CryptoBird described the ongoing drop as a typical pre-peak shakeout. “Final weak hands getting flushed before the euphoric top,” they said, pointing to similar patterns from previous bull runs.
Technical Breakdown Creates Risk of Deeper Losses
Beyond these forecasts, technical signals are also flashing red. Bitcoin has slipped below the 200-day simple moving average and is currently testing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $104,000. Daan Crypto Trades, another respected market watcher, said in an X post that “Touching grass if bulls can’t manage to hold this level this week,” signaling potential downside to June’s low near $98,000.
Captain Faibik echoed this bearish outlook. The analyst noted that Bitcoin is forming a rising wedge pattern on the weekly chart. According to their projection, “The Bitcoin bull run is over” and a 50% drop toward $52,200 is now possible. This target reflects a classic breakdown scenario from a wedge formation, one that has historically preceded extended bear phases.
Market Sentiment Hits Extreme Fear Levels
Adding to the caution, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 22, marking one of the lowest sentiment readings in over a year. This plunge into “extreme fear” territory reflects widespread concern across the crypto community. However, CryptoBird argued this emotional reset could set the stage for a final push higher, saying, “This emotional washout creates the perfect launchpad for final leg euphoria.”
Still, with price action failing to recover meaningfully and key levels under pressure, few traders are expressing confidence. Retail interest in Bitcoin is already tracking at bear market levels, another red flag for those hoping for a sustained rally.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $105,943.99.
