Bitcoin (BTC-USD) may be nearing the conclusion of its recent price correction as a core on-chain metric reaches levels never seen before. While the market has struggled with volatility in early 2026, technical data indicates that the undervalued phase for the world’s largest cryptocurrency has deepened beyond past historical pits.
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Specifically, the MVRV Z-score has hit fresh lows, a signal that has historically preceded major price recoveries. This shift comes as precious metals like gold and silver show signs of cooling off, potentially clearing the way for capital to flow back into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score Hits Record Lows
Prominent crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently confirmed that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has reached its lowest-ever readings on a rolling two-year time frame. “This is a phenomenal chart,” Van de Poppe told his followers, referencing data that suggests Bitcoin is currently more oversold than during the 2015, 2018, or 2022 bear market bottoms.
The MVRV Z-score is a mathematical tool that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its “realized value”—the price at which each coin last moved. By dividing this difference by a standard deviation, the metric identifies when Bitcoin is overvalued (red zone) or undervalued (green zone). “The current Z-Score of $BTC is lower than during the bear market bottom in 2015, 2018, COVID crash 2020 and 2022,” Van de Poppe noted. According to his analysis, “That’s how deep we’re in the bear market, and yes, we’re close to the end of it.”
Precious Metals Slowdown Acts as Market Trigger
The recent dip in Bitcoin’s price to roughly $81,000 coincided with a broader sell-off in risk assets and a sharp reversal in gold and silver. However, analysts believe this cooling in the metals market could be the trigger Bitcoin needs to find a long-term floor. Van de Poppe observed that gold and silver appear to be “done for now” after dropping significantly in a 24-hour window. He explained that while the markets are currently consolidating, this phase is often a necessary precursor to a Bitcoin breakout. “I’m not saying, the bull is over. No, far from it. But it will consolidate, and that’s also the trigger you’d like to see for Bitcoin,” he shared.
Glassnode Data Confirms Bitcoin’s Historic Undervaluation
Raw statistics from the analytics firm Glassnode support the idea that Bitcoin is currently trading in a historic discount zone. The live Z-score has not been this low since October 2023, a period when Bitcoin was priced at approximately $30,000.
The last time the indicator dipped into this specific green zone was at the tail end of 2022, just before the market began its ascent toward new yearly highs. This suggests that despite the current extreme fear sentiment in the market, the underlying math points toward a potential recovery as sellers become exhausted and long-term holders begin to accumulate at these technically significant levels.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $82,824.89.
