Bitcoin came within a whisper of $110,000 — and once again pulled back. The price tagged $109,777 before reversing at the July 9 Wall Street open, just shy of the breakout line traders have been watching for weeks. For now, BTC is pinned beneath thick overhead liquidity, and with macro pressure building, traders are being told to do one thing: buckle up.
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The setup is tense, the chart says breakout, the liquidity says pause, and the macro clock is ticking.
Resistance, Liquidity, or Just the Pre-Break Shakeout?
Order book data shows BTC boxed in between $108,500 and $110,500, with ask liquidity tightening like a lid over the recent rally. But traders are calling out what’s brewing above the range.
“Almost all liquidity is to the upside,” said analyst Jelle. “Stops above $110K are not safe.” The implication? If that wall breaks, the move could get fast. Jelle’s upside projection tags $130,000, provided Bitcoin can finally close a daily candle above the psychological mark.
Other traders are watching the 3-day RSI, which is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup. According to BitBull, a close above RSI 70 or $110K could trigger a multi-week breakout rally.
Macro Triggers Are Lined Up and Loaded
Volatility isn’t waiting on crypto. It’s coming from the top down. With the U.S. back in tariff brinkmanship and the Fed getting stickier on rate cuts, macro conditions are tightening.
Trading desk QCP Capital is now watching the July CPI print as a key volatility trigger. “Markets have already scaled back expectations for Fed cuts, from 2.5 to two. A July cut is off the table, and September odds are slipping.”
Throw in a weakened dollar and consistent institutional inflows, and the market looks… unsettled. Not risk-off, not fully risk-on — but primed.
As QCP put it bluntly, “The stage is set for elevated volatility.”
Bitcoin Is Coiled, Not Complacent
The bulls haven’t lost the setup, but they haven’t claimed it either. And that’s what makes this range so loud. The structure looks constructive. Momentum is building. But the real confirmation only comes above $110,000, and with macro fireworks looming, the next candle could tell the whole story.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $108,984.
